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Public model transparency

Trade idea performance. Measured in public.

Rolling and lifetime win rates by model, updated nightly from resolved outcomes only. Educational data, not financial advice.

Explore models View the table
1,443
Resolved ideas counted
78.2%
Aggregate lifetime win rate
29
Model cohorts tracked
144 / 4
Open / awaiting resolution
Measurement rules

How wins are measured

The page shows what has resolved, what is still open, and what is too thin to trust.

Directional ideas
Most directional ideas count as wins when the underlying moves at least 5% in the idea's favor (10% for option contracts) within the default 30-day window.
Resolved outcomes only
Policy-specific checks
IV crush ideas use post-earnings close containment inside the expected move; market sentiment ideas use their registered forward-close direction check.
Model rules stay explicit
No hidden denominator
Only resolved ideas enter a win rate. Open ideas and ideas past their window pending resolution are listed separately, never silently dropped.
Thin cohorts are labeled
Recent receipts

Latest resolved winners

Public receipts show the resolved window and peak move so each win can be checked against the same outcome rules.

NVDA
BULLISH
+7.6% peak
Repeated Flow ★☆☆
Resolved Jul 31, 2026
Receipt
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LRCX
BULLISH
+5.7% peak
Repeat Sweeps ★☆☆
Resolved Jul 31, 2026
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META
BULLISH
+12.0% peak
Unusual ★★☆
Resolved Jul 31, 2026
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META
BULLISH
+12.0% peak
Smart Money Flow ★★☆
Resolved Jul 31, 2026
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HIMS
BULLISH
+11.0% peak
X-Sectional Momentum ★★★
Resolved Jul 31, 2026
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KLAC
BEARISH
+38.0% peak
X-Sectional Momentum ★★★
Resolved Jul 31, 2026
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Model-by-model outcomes

Rolling win rates by model

Each row is a user-visible model cohort. Percentages include the resolved sample size so strong-looking but thin samples are easy to spot.

Minimum sample: 25 resolved ideas
Model 30d win rate 90d win rate Lifetime win rate Avg favorable peak Open / awaiting
Swing ★★☆
No data No data No data — 0 / 0
Statistical Pattern ★★☆
No data No data No data — 0 / 0
Unusual Activity ★★☆
No data No data No data — 0 / 0
Intraday Flow ★★☆
Not enough data (1) Not enough data (1) Not enough data (1) — 0 / 0
Whale Flow ★★☆
Not enough data (1) Not enough data (4) Not enough data (4) +21.51% 1 / 0
IV Crush ★★★
89.4% (180) 89.6% (337) 89.6% (337) — 13 / 4
Momentum ★★☆
Not enough data (3) Not enough data (4) Not enough data (4) +14.73% 0 / 0
Mean Reversion ★★★
No data No data No data — 0 / 0
Outlier Reversion ★★☆
No data No data No data — 0 / 0
Earnings Drift ★★★
No data No data No data — 0 / 0
Trend Continuation ★★☆
Not enough data (4) Not enough data (4) Not enough data (4) +8.6% 0 / 0
Trend Pullback ★★☆
No data No data No data — 0 / 0
Breakout Retest ★★☆
Not enough data (1) Not enough data (1) Not enough data (1) +14.72% 2 / 0
Local Outlier Breakout ★★☆
No data No data No data — 0 / 0
Residual Reversion ★★☆
Not enough data (1) Not enough data (1) Not enough data (1) +14.65% 0 / 0
X-Sectional Momentum ★★★
76.6% (521) 80.1% (715) 80.1% (715) +18.5% 83 / 0
Volume Breakout ★★☆
No data No data No data — 0 / 0
Volatility Squeeze ★☆☆
No data No data No data — 0 / 0
Flow Surge ★★☆
Not enough data (1) Not enough data (3) Not enough data (3) +11.44% 1 / 0
Market Sentiment ★★☆
Not enough data (2) Not enough data (6) Not enough data (6) +0.37% 0 / 0
Informed Flow ★★☆
Not enough data (8) Not enough data (8) Not enough data (8) +19.23% 0 / 0
Smart Money Flow ★★☆
71.9% (57) 71.9% (57) 71.9% (57) +14.96% 7 / 0
Unusual ★★☆
Not enough data (8) Not enough data (8) Not enough data (8) +11.14% 4 / 0
Flow Anomaly Confirmed ★★☆
No data No data No data — 0 / 0
Repeat Sweeps ★☆☆
56.1% (66) 64.8% (165) 64.8% (165) +19.51% 10 / 0
Repeated Flow ★☆☆
59.2% (49) 63.2% (117) 63.2% (117) +17.87% 9 / 0
Steady Flow ★★☆
No data No data No data — 0 / 0
Large Prints ★★☆
Not enough data (10) Not enough data (12) Not enough data (12) +12.26% 1 / 0
Zero DTE ★★☆
No data No data No data — 13 / 0
Win rates show percentage plus resolved count. "Not enough data" appears below 25 resolved ideas. Open / awaiting = ideas currently monitored / past their registered window pending resolution. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Updated nightly Resolved-only win rates Educational data, not financial advice