+19.9% peak
The public record
Every idea, scored in public.
Rolling and lifetime win rates for every model cohort, rebuilt nightly from resolved outcomes only. Open ideas are counted separately, thin samples are labelled as thin, and the definition of a win is printed beside the numbers.
Educational data. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
2,028
Resolved ideas counted
77.6%
Aggregate lifetime win rate
5% / 30d
What counts as a win
119 / 4
Open / awaiting resolution
Measurement rules
How a win is counted.
What has resolved, what is still running, and what is too thin to trust — said out loud, on the same page as the numbers.
- Directional ideas
- A win is the underlying moving 5% in the idea's favour, or 10% for an option contract, inside the default 30-day window.
- Models that measure something else
- IV crush ideas are judged on post-earnings containment inside the expected move, and market sentiment ideas on their registered forward-close direction check. Some families genuinely measure different things, so both rules are stated rather than averaged.
- No hidden denominator
- Only resolved ideas enter a rate. Open ideas, and ideas past their window awaiting resolution, are listed in their own column — never dropped to make a percentage look better.
- Thin cohorts say so
- A family below the minimum resolved sample is shown as insufficient rather than omitted. Hiding it would let the visible rows read as the whole record.
Recent receipts
The last few that landed.
Each one resolves to a public page showing the window it was measured over and the peak move it reached.
+10.3% peak
+7.7% peak
+14.9% peak
+15.1% peak
+9.4% peak
Model by model
Rolling win rates.
Each row is a cohort a reader can actually browse. Every percentage carries its resolved sample size, so a strong-looking thin one is easy to spot.
Minimum sample: 25 resolved ideas.
| Model | 30 days | 90 days | Lifetime | Avg. favourable peak | Open / awaiting |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Swing ★★☆ | Not enough data (2) | Not enough data (3) | Not enough data (3) | +8.48% | 35 / 0 |
| Statistical Pattern ★★☆ | No data | No data | No data | — | 0 / 0 |
| Unusual Activity ★★☆ | No data | No data | No data | — | 2 / 0 |
| Intraday Flow ★★☆ | Not enough data (1) | Not enough data (1) | Not enough data (1) | — | 0 / 0 |
| Whale Flow ★★☆ | Not enough data (1) | Not enough data (8) | Not enough data (8) | +18.22% | 0 / 0 |
| IV Crush ★★★ | 87.0% (69) | 90.7% (439) | 90.4% (583) | — | 5 / 4 |
| Momentum ★★☆ | Not enough data (1) | Not enough data (5) | Not enough data (5) | +13.18% | 2 / 0 |
| Mean Reversion ★★★ | Not enough data (1) | Not enough data (1) | Not enough data (1) | +5.89% | 0 / 0 |
| Outlier Reversion ★★☆ | No data | No data | No data | — | 1 / 0 |
| Earnings Drift ★★★ | No data | No data | No data | — | 0 / 0 |
| Trend Continuation ★★☆ | Not enough data (4) | Not enough data (11) | Not enough data (11) | +11.55% | 2 / 0 |
| Trend Pullback ★★☆ | No data | No data | No data | — | 1 / 0 |
| Breakout Retest ★★☆ | Not enough data (4) | Not enough data (6) | Not enough data (6) | +6.79% | 2 / 0 |
| Local Outlier Breakout ★★☆ | Not enough data (3) | Not enough data (3) | Not enough data (3) | +12.06% | 4 / 0 |
| Residual Reversion ★★☆ | Not enough data (7) | Not enough data (9) | Not enough data (9) | +13.01% | 5 / 0 |
| X-Sectional Momentum ★★☆ | 77.1% (96) | 76.3% (929) | 76.3% (929) | +16.81% | 55 / 0 |
| Volume Breakout ★★☆ | No data | No data | No data | — | 0 / 0 |
| Volatility Squeeze ★☆☆ | Not enough data (2) | Not enough data (2) | Not enough data (2) | +4.08% | 2 / 0 |
| Flow Surge ★★☆ | Not enough data (2) | Not enough data (5) | Not enough data (5) | +11.77% | 0 / 0 |
| Market Sentiment ★★☆ | Not enough data (4) | Not enough data (10) | Not enough data (10) | +0.64% | 0 / 0 |
| Informed Flow ★★☆ | Not enough data (2) | Not enough data (10) | Not enough data (10) | +19.17% | 0 / 0 |
| Smart Money Flow ★★☆ | Not enough data (3) | 70.4% (71) | 70.4% (71) | +14.04% | 1 / 0 |
| Unusual ★★☆ | Not enough data (7) | Not enough data (20) | Not enough data (20) | +15.31% | 1 / 0 |
| Flow Anomaly Confirmed ★★☆ | No data | No data | No data | — | 0 / 0 |
| Repeat Sweeps ★☆☆ | Not enough data (4) | 63.3% (180) | 63.3% (180) | +18.77% | 0 / 0 |
| Repeated Flow ★☆☆ | Not enough data (3) | 59.8% (127) | 59.8% (127) | +16.87% | 0 / 0 |
| Steady Flow ★★☆ | No data | No data | No data | — | 0 / 0 |
| Large Prints ★★☆ | Not enough data (1) | Not enough data (15) | Not enough data (15) | +11.76% | 1 / 0 |
| Zero DTE ★★★ | Not enough data (22) | 89.7% (29) | 89.7% (29) | +13.03% | 0 / 0 |
| Technical Confluence ★★☆ | No data | No data | No data | — | 0 / 0 |
Rates carry their resolved count. "Not enough data" appears below 25 resolved ideas. Open / awaiting counts ideas currently monitored against ideas past their registered window pending resolution. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Use the same models.
The ideas on this page are the ones that already resolved. The next ones publish as they are generated, with the same rules and the same record.
Updated nightly · Resolved-only win rates · Educational data, not advice