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iShares Russell 2000 ETF IWM 279.33 -4.68 -1.65% Regime: Trend Down (72%)

Previous-day view · Fri Oct 30 close. You are previewing the previous trading day. Subscribe to see today live and every other date — Day Trader is $59/mo. Sign up Sign in
Priced to move · next session

Priced to move is the size of move the options market charges for, read from the at-the-money straddles across the expiry ladder and scaled to the horizon shown. It is a size, not a direction: the market prices how far, never which way.

The dollar figure is that size from the session's close. For SPY and SPX during the session, the card reads the remaining move to the close from the live 0DTE quotes instead, and it shrinks through the afternoon as the straddle decays.

  • 2 in 3 and 9 in 10 are the bands two thirds and nine tenths of closes landed inside, in every held-out year since 2019.
  • A horizon marked Earnings includes the report's jump; the others do not.
See also: Odds to the close , Implied volatility (IV)
±1.0%
±$2.82 from $279.71 at the October 30, 2026 close
Size, not direction. The bands are close-to-close; how often a session only touches an edge is measured on the odds card.
Odds · next session

For SPY and SPX during the session, odds are the measured frequency with which a strike one sigma out was touched before the close, and the frequency the session closed beyond it, at this hour and distance. Touching happens about twice as often as closing beyond, which is why a target is easier than a finish.

For every other symbol the odds are measured from the previous close's one-session band: across 4.0 million single-name sessions since 2016 the next session touched a 68% edge about 60% of the time and closed beyond it about 30%; at the 90% edge, about 19% and 9%. A session with earnings in it, and a fund, carry more of their move overnight, so they touch less often for the same close, and the card uses their own rows.

Neither figure says which way the stock will go.

See also: Priced to move
56% touch
the 68% edges $276.32 or $283.09; 33% close beyond them. The 90% edges $273.64–$285.78: 17% touch, 10% close beyond.
A frequency, not a direction: a touch says the priced move arrived, not which way the day ends. Survivor panel. The within-session decay is its own record (touch_decay).
Cost to be in the trade

Cost is what the cheapest-to-trade call and put for the next few sessions charge to get in and out, read as the quoted spread against the mid. Options get no price improvement — nine prints in ten fill at the bid or the ask — so the spread is the cost, and choosing a contract with a tight one removes about a third of it.

  • tradeable is a spread up to 5% of mid, expensive up to 15%, avoid beyond.
  • The contract shown is a long call or put near 0.50 delta inside five sessions; a different horizon is a different pick.

A quote is not a fill, and a cheaper contract is a different position.

See also: Cheapest contract for the exposure
0.8% round trip
Call 280.00 · 5d · $2.54 mid, spread 0.8% tradeable · Put 280.00 · 5d · $2.78 mid, spread 2.5% tradeable
A quote, not a fill: the spread can widen before an order arrives, and a cheaper contract is a different position.
Event and volatility read
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The model reads are for the current session, which this plan does not open.
A volatility forecast, not a return. Selling the premium is charged at a median spread and the 2025–26 stretch was the decade's weakest.
Calls Bought: $19,190,496 Puts Bought: $44,350,891 Calls Sold: $9,391,420 Puts Sold: $60,469,151 Net Premium: $25,917,336
IWM on the tape: Flow Order flow UOA Dark pool