For SPY and SPX during the session, odds are the measured frequency with which a strike one sigma out was touched before the close, and the frequency the session closed beyond it, at this hour and distance. Touching happens about twice as often as closing beyond, which is why a target is easier than a finish.

For every other symbol the odds are measured from the previous close's one-session band: across 4.0 million single-name sessions since 2016 the next session touched a 68% edge about 60% of the time and closed beyond it about 30%; at the 90% edge, about 19% and 9%. A session with earnings in it, and a fund, carry more of their move overnight, so they touch less often for the same close, and the card uses their own rows.

Neither figure says which way the stock will go.