SMPL
NEUTRAL WIN- Entry
- $12.84
- Target
- $8.89
- Stop
- $16.79
SMPL is a neutral volatility setup, where the trade is built around price staying inside the planned range rather than making a large directional move. The suggested iron condor uses the current stock price near $12.84 with a planned lower boundary near $8.89 and upper boundary near $16.79, so the thesis depends on price remaining inside that range. Supporting factors include IV rank 51% (elevated vs 1-year history), ATM IV 70.7% vs realized 50.4%, and front/next IV ratio 1.296 (event premium in term structure). Because this is a time-sensitive idea over roughly 24 hours, it should be sized carefully and revisited if price moves through the risk level or the supporting flow fades.
91% of 35 similar resolved ideas finished inside their expected-move range after earnings
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