TDW
NEUTRAL WIN- Entry
- $75.06
- Target
- $61.29
- Stop
- $88.83
TDW is a neutral volatility setup, where the trade is built around price staying inside the planned range rather than making a large directional move. The suggested iron condor uses the current stock price near $75.06 with a planned lower boundary near $61.29 and upper boundary near $88.83, so the thesis depends on price remaining inside that range. Supporting factors include IV rank 61% (elevated vs 1-year history), ATM IV 62.0% vs realized 40.1%, and front/next IV ratio 1.241 (event premium in term structure). Because this is a time-sensitive idea over roughly 24 hours, it should be sized carefully and revisited if price moves through the risk level or the supporting flow fades.
88% of 129 similar resolved ideas finished inside their expected-move range after earnings
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