Verified public receipt

AVAV trade idea receipt

Public timestamp, registered evaluation window, and model context for a single Optionomics trade idea. Final receipts publish the outcome; live receipts keep member-only levels private until the check closes.

NEUTRAL IV Crush WIN
Final outcome receipt

AVAV

NEUTRAL WIN
Post-earnings close stayed inside the expected move range
Entry $135.92
Target $104.56
Stop $167.27
Thesis snapshot

AVAV is a neutral volatility setup, where the trade is built around price staying inside the planned range rather than making a large directional move. The suggested iron condor uses the current stock price near $135.92 with a planned lower boundary near $104.56 and upper boundary near $167.27, so the thesis depends on price remaining inside that range. Supporting factors include IV rank 66% (elevated vs 1-year history), ATM IV 92.6% vs realized 73.0%, and front/next IV ratio 1.239 (event premium in term structure). Because this is a time-sensitive idea over roughly 24 hours, it should be sized carefully and revisited if price moves through the risk level or the supporting flow fades.

89% of 122 similar resolved ideas finished inside their expected-move range after earnings
Model: IV Crush ideas at 90+ confidence

Trade ideas are AI-generated starting points for research, published with immutable timestamps and tracked against their registered evaluation policy. Educational data, not financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. See the full model track record