GOOGL · Alphabet Inc

GOOGL expected move

GOOGL closed at $342.87 on September 16, 2026. The options market prices a typical move of ±1.5% by the next close and ±7.1% over the next month.

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September 16, 2026 close · Priced from every listed expiration · Calibrated on 2016–2026

±1.5%

Next session · $337.62–$348.12

±3.4%

Next week · $331.14–$354.60

±7.1%

Next month · $318.63–$367.11

31 sessions

Until earnings

The cone

How far GOOGL is priced to move.

Where the options market expects GOOGL to trade over the next month. The edge is the typical move; two closes in three land in the darker band, nine in ten in the lighter one.

GOOGL closes and expected-move cone 42 sessions back · 21 ahead

GOOGL reports earnings in 31 sessions. The jump the market prices for that report is added only to the horizons that include it, which is why the cone steps out there instead of widening smoothly.

Every horizon

The ranges, session by session.

Price ranges from the last close. A size, not a direction — the stock is as likely to use it going down as going up.

Horizon	Expected move	Typical range	2 in 3 closes	9 in 10 closes
Next session	±1.5% ±$5.25	$337.62 – $348.12	$336.56 – $349.18	$331.59 – $354.15
2 sessions	±2.1% ±$7.30	$335.57 – $350.17	$333.99 – $351.75	$327.10 – $358.64
3 sessions	±2.7% ±$9.22	$333.65 – $352.09	$331.86 – $353.88	$323.26 – $362.48
1 week	±3.4% ±$11.73	$331.14 – $354.60	$328.54 – $357.20	$317.91 – $367.83
2 weeks	±4.8% ±$16.42	$326.45 – $359.29	$322.54 – $363.20	$307.79 – $377.95
3 weeks	±5.9% ±$20.37	$322.50 – $363.24	$317.57 – $368.17	$299.84 – $385.90
1 month	±7.1% ±$24.24	$318.63 – $367.11	$312.59 – $373.15	$291.47 – $394.27

Put it to work

Three ways traders use it.

The expected move is the market's price for a move. Every options trade is a bet on whether the stock does more or less than that.

Sell the range Collect premium outside it An iron condor with short strikes at the expected move profits when GOOGL stays inside — the outcome the market already calls ordinary. Price a condor Trade a direction Strike spreads at the move A call or put spread whose short leg sits on the expected move pays its maximum if your view is right and the stock only does what is priced. Find a spread Check a breakeven Know what you need A breakeven inside the expected move needs an ordinary day. One outside it needs the stock to beat the market's own forecast. Open the builder

Method

Calibrated, not just quoted.

Every listed expiration's at-the-money straddle is what the market charges to be paid on a move either way by that date. We place each on trading sessions, fill in the horizons between them, split an upcoming earnings report out from the everyday drift, and scale the result by how far stocks actually moved against that price across 2016–2026. Options usually charge about ten percent more than the move that follows, so a raw straddle overstates it.

Held up out of sample: Fitted on earlier years and tested on each of 2019–2026: the average realised move landed within 2–6% of the forecast, and the 68% and 90% ranges held 66–68% and 89–90% of closes.
Horizon-true: A quoted 'expected move' is usually the front expiration's straddle, whatever its date. Here a week means five sessions and a month twenty-one.
Not advice: A range the market prices is not a prediction of direction. Education, not investment advice.

See where GOOGL's options money went too: GOOGL options flow

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