10-Q · July 23, 2026
Waste Connections delivered 6.4% year-over-year Q2 revenue growth to $2.562 billion and reported EPS of $1.17, with adjusted EPS of $1.50. Pricing, acquisitions and higher E&P activity supported growth across every…
Earnings analysis · 10-Q
WCN earnings analysis
Filed October 22, 2026 · Our reading of the company's report
The latest report
Waste Connections delivered a strong Q3, with revenue of $2.638 billion and adjusted EPS of $1.58, beating consensus by approximately 1.1% and $0.06, respectively. Revenue and adjusted free cash flow increased versus…
Read full summary
Waste Connections delivered a strong Q3, with revenue of $2.638 billion and adjusted EPS of $1.58, beating consensus by approximately 1.1% and $0.06, respectively. Revenue and adjusted free cash flow increased versus both the prior quarter and prior-year quarter, while adjusted EBITDA margin reached 34.0%. Management raised its 2026 outlook for the second time to approximately $10.09 billion of revenue, $3.345 billion of adjusted EBITDA, and $1.40-$1.45 billion of adjusted free cash flow. Key exposures remain floating-rate debt, unhedged diesel purchases, recycled commodity prices, and foreign exchange.
Gross and operating margin
How much of each revenue dollar the business keeps.
One point per quarterly or annual filing. Both margins are shares of that report's revenue.
How we read each report
Our analysis across the last few reports.
Our model's reading of each filing, not the share price or the market's reaction. Annual and quarterly reports each occupy one position.
Reported figures
- Earnings per share
- $1.58
What stood out
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Revenue beat and accelerated sequentially
Q3 revenue was $2.638 billion, up approximately 3.0% from $2.56 billion in Q2 2026 and 7.2% from $2.46 billion in Q3 2025. Revenue exceeded consensus of $2.6086 billion by approximately 1.1%.
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Adjusted EPS materially exceeded estimates
Adjusted EPS was $1.58, up $0.41, or approximately 35%, from $1.17 in Q2 2026 and up $0.47, or approximately 42%, from $1.11 in Q3 2025. EPS exceeded consensus of $1.52 by $0.06.
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Strong EBITDA and cash generation
Adjusted EBITDA margin reached 34.0%, while adjusted free cash flow was $386.9 million. Adjusted free cash flow increased approximately 1.8% from $380 million in Q3 2025 and 1.8% from $380 million in Q2 2026.
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Significant share repurchases continued
The company repurchased 1,974,246 shares during Q3 at an average price of $167.11 per share. For the nine months ended September 30, 2026, it repurchased 5.7 million shares for an aggregate $944.4 million.
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Floating-rate exposure declined
The company had $1.729 billion of unhedged floating-rate debt at September 30, 2026, down from $2.182 billion at December 31, 2025. A 1 percentage-point increase in rates would reduce annual pretax income by approximately $17.3 million.
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Partial diesel cost protection in place
Management expects to purchase approximately 92.3 million gallons of diesel fuel in 2026, including 41.8 million gallons under fixed-price contracts and 50.5 million gallons at market prices.
What to watch
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Interest-rate exposure remains material
At September 30, 2026, $1.729 billion of debt remained exposed to floating rates. The filing estimates that a 1 percentage-point increase in rates would reduce annual pretax income by approximately $17.3 million.
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Unhedged diesel costs could pressure margins
The company had no fuel hedge agreements in place at September 30, 2026 and expects to buy approximately 12.6 million gallons of diesel at market prices during October-December 2026. A $0.10-per-gallon increase would reduce pretax income by approximately $1.3 million in that period.
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Commodity and currency volatility
A 10% decline in average recycled commodity prices would have reduced revenues by $17.8 million for the nine months ended September 30, 2026. Canadian-dollar movements also affect results: a $0.01 exchange-rate change would impact annual revenue and EBITDA by approximately $20.0 million and $9.0 million, respectively.
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Capital allocation and acquisition trade-off
The company authorized an NCIB for up to 12,578,462 shares and had repurchased 5.7 million shares for $944.4 million through September 30, 2026. Repurchases compete with potential acquisition growth opportunities for capital allocation.
Management's outlook
Management raised its full-year 2026 outlook for the second time: approximately $10.09 billion of revenue, $3.345 billion of adjusted EBITDA, and adjusted free cash flow of $1.40-$1.45 billion. No numeric EPS outlook was provided.
Earlier filings 4
10-Q · April 23, 2026
Waste Connections reported Q1 2026 revenue of $2,370,631,000, up 6.4% YoY from $2,228,176,000, driven by $120.0 million of net price increases and acquisitions. Segment EBITDA rose to $758,413,000 (32.0% of revenue) but…
10-K · February 12, 2026
Waste Connections reports 2025 revenue of $9,466,915,000 (up from $8,919,591,000 in 2024) and diluted EPS of $4.17 (vs. $2.39 in 2024), driven by higher operating income of $1,710,174,000. The company continues its dual…
10-Q · October 22, 2025
Waste Connections reported Q3 revenue of $2,458,378 (reported in the filing as $2,458,378 in thousands), up from $2,338,488 a year ago, driven by collection, E&P and transfer growth. Operating income declined to…
This is our reading of a public filing, not the filing itself. Analysis can contain errors; check the source document for full context.