VST earnings analysis
What we found in VST's 10-Q: the parts that mattered, the offsets in the same document, and what the company said about what comes next.
Our reading of the filing · Free to read, no account needed
Vistra's Q2 2026 results were mixed: revenue fell 5.5% year over year to $4.017 billion and diluted EPS was $0.908, but Adjusted EBITDA rose 31% to $1.744 billion and operating margin improved to approximately 13.8% from 12.1%. Texas and East segment EBITDA improved materially, while Retail sales volumes declined to 31,800 GWh from 33,267 GWh and East net income was pressured by $629 million of unrealized hedging losses. Liquidity expanded to $6.295 billion, although cash fell to $435 million and the company incurred substantial debt repayments, investment commitments, collateral requirements, and Moss Landing-related costs. No new quantitative guidance was provided, and the company stated that there were no material changes to the risk factors in its 2025 Form 10-K.
The parts that mattered.
Pulled out of the filing itself, with the figures the company reported.
- Operating Margin Improved Year Over Year
- Q2 operating revenue was $4.017 billion, down $233 million, or 5.5%, from $4.250 billion in Q2 2025 and down $1.623 billion, or 28.8%, from $5.640 billion in Q1 2026. Operating income was $553 million, implying a 13.8% operating margin versus 12.1% in Q2 2025 and 26.6% in Q1 2026.
- Adjusted EBITDA Rose Despite EPS Decline
- Diluted EPS was $0.908 versus $0.81 in Q2 2025, but declined from $2.87 in Q1 2026. Net income was $305 million, down $22 million year over year, while Adjusted EBITDA increased $412 million to $1.744 billion.
- Texas Earnings More Than Doubled
- Texas Adjusted EBITDA increased to $311 million from $142 million, supported by higher energy margins from optimizing gas-unit dispatch and the return of the 815 MW Martin Lake Unit 1 to service in February 2026.
- East Benefits From Capacity Prices
- East Adjusted EBITDA increased to $642 million from $418 million, driven primarily by higher realized capacity prices and plants added in the Lotus Acquisition. East production from natural gas facilities increased to 15,805 GWh from 12,198 GWh.
- Operating Cash Flow Strengthened
- Six-month operating cash flow increased to $2.222 billion from $1.171 billion, a $1.051 billion improvement. Management attributed the increase partly to a $180 million decrease in net margin deposits supporting hedging activities.
- Liquidity Expanded Materially
- Available liquidity increased to $6.295 billion at June 30, 2026 from $2.783 billion at December 31, 2025, despite cash declining to $435 million from $785 million. Revolving-credit availability increased to $4.408 billion and commodity-linked availability to $1.452 billion.
And the other side of it.
The offsets in the same document — the things a summary that only listed the good news would have left out.
- Heavy Capital Allocation and Debt Uses
- Cash declined by $350 million to $435 million at June 30, 2026. Six-month financing uses included $2.450 billion of Term Loan B-3 repayments, $1.8 billion of credit-facility repayments, $1.3 billion of senior-note repayments, $925 million of receivables-facility repayments, $709 million of share repurchases, and $250 million of dividends.
- Higher Hedging Collateral and Market Risk
- Commodity and hedging exposure remains significant: $1.874 billion of cash and eligible assets and $3.006 billion of letters of credit were posted with counterparties at June 30, 2026, versus $1.577 billion and $2.489 billion, respectively, at December 31, 2025. Average commodity VaR rose to $459 million from $224 million in 2025.
- Maintenance and Supply-Chain Cost Pressure
- Supply-chain constraints and labor shortages have increased equipment and labor costs and led to deferral or abandonment of some solar and battery capital expenditures. The company also reported $853 million of Q2 operating costs versus $733 million in Q2 2025, primarily due to higher maintenance, outage, acquired-plant, and Moss Landing costs.
- New Digital-Infrastructure Commitment
- The company committed up to $1 billion to the Helix Fund, including a callable initial $500 million commitment and a further $500 million contingent commitment. The timing and amount of future capital calls are outside Vistra's control.
- Moss Landing Costs Remain Elevated
- Asset Closure net loss increased to $116 million from $43 million in Q2 2025 because of incremental Moss Landing Incident costs net of insurance recoveries. The Moss Landing incident continues to create operating and remediation exposure.
- Counterparty Concentration Risk
- Wholesale credit exposure before collateral was $2.648 billion and net exposure was $2.481 billion at June 30, 2026. One counterparty represented $236 million, or 36%, of net wholesale-segment exposure, creating concentration risk if that counterparty defaults.
What they reported.
What the company itself reported, taken out of the document.
- Earnings per share
- $0.908
- Operating margin
- 13.8%
- Segment
- Retail: revenue $3.610 billion; Adjusted EBITDA $773 million versus $756 million in Q2 2025.
- Segment
- Texas: revenue $1.418 billion; Adjusted EBITDA $311 million versus $142 million in Q2 2025.
- Segment
- East: revenue $954 million; Adjusted EBITDA $642 million versus $418 million in Q2 2025.
- Segment
- West: revenue $71 million; Adjusted EBITDA $68 million versus $49 million in Q2 2025.
- Segment
- Asset Closure: revenue $0 million; Adjusted EBITDA $(23) million versus $(17) million in Q2 2025.
What they said about what is next.
No new quantitative revenue, EPS, or Adjusted EBITDA guidance was provided in the 10-Q. The filing states that Vistra expects sufficient liquidity through at least the next 12 months, including the Cogentrix transaction, 2026 and 2027 debt maturities, and the $500 million initial Helix Fund commitment when called.
The filing reads about the same as the one before it.
What came before.
- 10-Q · May 7, 2026
- Vistra Corp. reported Q1 2026 results with a significant revenue increase of 43.3% year-over-year, reaching $5.64 billion, and an impressive EPS of $2.89, compared to -$0.93 in Q1 2025. The company's strong performance…
- 10-Q · November 8, 2024
- Vistra reported a strong Q3 with operating revenues of $6,288 million (versus $4,086 million a year ago) and diluted EPS of $5.25 (vs $1.25 prior year), driven by higher margins and operating income. Operating income…
- 10-Q · November 7, 2023
- Vistra reported Q3 operating revenues of $4,086 million and diluted EPS of $1.25 for the three months ended September 30, 2023. Revenues declined materially vs. the prior-year quarter while operating margin improved;…
- 10-K · February 25, 2022
- Vistra positions itself as an integrated retail and generation platform leading a clean power transition, targeting net-zero carbon by 2050 and expanding its Vistra Zero portfolio to 7,300 MW by year-end 2026. The…
This is our reading of a public filing, not the filing. Read the original on SEC.gov · Educational only. Nothing here is investment advice.
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