TOL earnings analysis
What we found in TOL's 10-Q: the parts that mattered, the offsets in the same document, and what the company said about what comes next.
Our reading of the filing · Free to read, no account needed
Toll Brothers delivered a Q3 FY2026 revenue and EPS beat, with $2.659 billion of revenue and $2.97 diluted EPS, but both revenue and EPS declined year over year from $2.95 billion and $3.73, respectively. Management reaffirmed its FY2026 outlook, including approximately $10.5 billion of home sales revenue and 10,500-10,600 deliveries, while increasing planned share repurchases to $700 million. The balance-sheet risk focus is interest-rate sensitivity: $814.662 million of variable-rate debt would add approximately $8.2 million of annual interest expense for each 1% rate increase. The filing states there were no material changes to the risk factors from the 2025 Form 10-K.
The parts that mattered.
Pulled out of the filing itself, with the figures the company reported.
- Revenue Beat Estimates, Down Year Over Year
- Q3 revenue was $2.659 billion, up approximately 5.1% from $2.53 billion in Q2 but down approximately 9.9% from $2.95 billion in the prior-year quarter. Revenue exceeded the $2.614 billion consensus estimate by approximately 1.7%.
- EPS Beat Estimates Despite YoY Decline
- Diluted EPS was $2.97, up from $2.72 in Q2 but down from $3.73 in Q3 2025. EPS exceeded the $2.92 consensus estimate by approximately 1.7%.
- FY2026 Outlook Reaffirmed
- Management reaffirmed approximately $10.5 billion of FY2026 home sales revenue and 10,500-10,600 deliveries, alongside a 26.1% adjusted home sales gross-margin outlook.
- Share Repurchases Continued
- The company repurchased 1.391 million shares during the quarter at an average price of $148.10 per share, with 6.721 million shares remaining available under the program at July 31, 2026.
- Dividend Capacity Remains Substantial
- The company paid $0.77 per share in cash dividends during the first nine months of FY2026; debt agreements permitted approximately $4.09 billion of dividends at July 31, 2026.
And the other side of it.
The offsets in the same document — the things a summary that only listed the good news would have left out.
- Floating-Rate Debt Creates Interest Exposure
- The filing reports fixed-rate debt of $1.951 billion and variable-rate debt of $814.662 million. Holding variable-rate debt constant, a 1% increase in interest rates would increase annual interest expense by approximately $8.2 million.
- Lower Year-Over-Year Earnings Base
- Q3 revenue declined approximately 9.9% year over year, from $2.95 billion to $2.659 billion, while diluted EPS declined approximately 20.4%, from $3.73 to $2.97.
- Continued Capital Deployment
- The company repurchased 1.391 million shares during the quarter at average prices ranging from $137.11 to $152.18 per share, and 6.721 million shares remained authorized for repurchase, representing continued capital deployment exposure if operating conditions weaken.
What they reported.
What the company itself reported, taken out of the document.
- Earnings per share
- $2.97
What they said about what is next.
Management reaffirmed FY2026 outlook of approximately $10.5 billion of home sales revenue, 10,500-10,600 deliveries, 26.1% adjusted home sales gross margin, and 480-490 communities. Planned FY2026 share repurchases were increased to $700 million from $650 million.
The filing reads about the same as the one before it.
What came before.
- 10-Q · May 29, 2026
- Toll Brothers reported Q2 2026 results showing a revenue decrease to $2.53 billion, down 8% YoY, with net income falling 26% to $260.6 million. EPS of $2.72 exceeded estimates of $2.58, indicating mixed performance…
- 10-Q · February 27, 2026
- Toll Brothers reported Q1 revenue of $2,145,627,000 and diluted EPS of $2.19, beating consensus and growing 15.4% versus Q1 last year. Revenue strength was driven by a large increase in land sales and other revenue…
- 10-K · December 19, 2025
- Toll Brothers positions itself as a broad luxury and affordable-luxury homebuilder with an expanded geographic footprint (operating in 24 states + D.C.) and a large pipeline: backlog of $5.49 billion (4,647 homes) at…
- 10-Q · August 28, 2025
- Toll Brothers reported quarterly revenue of $2,945,117 (amounts in thousands) for the three months ended July 31, 2025, up from $2,727,944 in the prior-year quarter, and diluted EPS of $3.73 versus $3.60 a year ago.…
This is our reading of a public filing, not the filing. Read the original on SEC.gov · Educational only. Nothing here is investment advice.
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