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Earnings analysis · 10-K

STX earnings analysis

Filed August 4, 2026 · Our reading of the company's report

The latest report

Seagate’s FY2026 results show a pronounced cyclical and structural inflection: revenue grew 34% to $12.195 billion, gross margin expanded 11 points to 46%, and diluted EPS more than doubled to $13.90. Growth was driven…

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Seagate’s FY2026 results show a pronounced cyclical and structural inflection: revenue grew 34% to $12.195 billion, gross margin expanded 11 points to 46%, and diluted EPS more than doubled to $13.90. Growth was driven by nearline HDD demand, higher data-center mix, pricing discipline and higher-capacity products, while the HAMR ramp provides the principal product roadmap catalyst for FY2027. Cash generation enabled $1.4 billion of debt reduction, dividends and modest share repurchases, although litigation, a materially higher tax rate and customer concentration remain notable constraints.

Read the original on SEC.gov

Gross and operating margin

How much of each revenue dollar the business keeps.

46% Gross margin Operating margin Apr 2023 Aug 2026

One point per quarterly or annual filing. Both margins are shares of that report's revenue.

From revenue to operating profit

Where each $100 of revenue went in this report.

Of every $100 of revenue Cost of sales $54 Operating expenses $12 Left as operating profit $34

Cost of sales, operating expenses, and what remained. Figures are rounded to whole dollars.

How we read each report

Our analysis across the last few reports.

Read as bullish Read as bearish Apr 2023 Aug 2026

Our model's reading of each filing, not the share price or the market's reaction. Annual and quarterly reports each occupy one position.

Reported figures

Earnings per share
$13.9
Segment
The company reports one operating segment: manufacture and distribution of data-storage solutions.
Segment
Channel mix: OEMs $9.819 billion (81% of revenue), distributors $1.638 billion (13%), and retailers $738 million (6%).
Segment
End-market mix: Data Center was 80% of revenue and Edge IoT was 20%.

What stood out

  • Revenue growth accelerated to 34%

    FY2026 revenue rose 34% to $12.195 billion from $9.097 billion in FY2025 and $6.551 billion in FY2024. The company attributes the FY2026 increase primarily to higher nearline exabytes shipped and favorable pricing actions.

  • Pricing and mix drove margin inflection

    Gross margin expanded to 46% from 35% in FY2025 and 23% in FY2024, while operating margin increased to 34% from 21% and 7%, respectively. Management cites pricing actions and a shift toward higher-capacity products.

  • Nearline and data-center mix strengthened

    Nearline HDD shipments grew to 695 exabytes from 497 exabytes, lifting total HDD shipments to 789 exabytes from 595 exabytes. Data Center increased to 80% of revenue from 75%, supported by cloud and enterprise-edge demand tied to data-intensive and AI applications.

  • Earnings and cash flow scaled sharply

    Net income increased to $3.184 billion, or $13.90 diluted EPS, from $1.469 billion, or $6.77, in FY2025; FY2024 net income was $335 million, or $1.58 per diluted share. Operating cash flow rose to $3.674 billion from $1.083 billion and $918 million over the same three-year period.

  • HAMR roadmap supports capacity strategy

    The strategy centers on scalable, cost-efficient, reliable mass-capacity HDD storage for cloud, enterprise and Edge IoT workloads. The product roadmap includes a FY2027 HAMR volume ramp, with capital spending targeted at 4%-6% of revenue.

  • Cash flow funded debt reduction and returns

    Capital allocation prioritized balance-sheet repair and shareholder returns: Seagate reduced outstanding debt by $1.4 billion, paid $634 million of dividends, repurchased $176 million of shares, and spent $569 million on property, equipment and leasehold improvements. Cash rose to $1.704 billion from $891 million.

What to watch

  • New securities-litigation settlement charge

    A newly recorded $105 million legal-settlement charge relates to the securities class action settlement; the total settlement is $175 million, with approximately $70 million expected to be paid by insurers. Final court approval is scheduled for November 17, 2026.

  • Pillar Two materially increased tax burden

    Tax expense rose to $506 million from $44 million and the effective tax rate increased to 13.73% from 2.91%. The filing quantifies a $422 million Qualified Domestic Minimum Top-up Tax effect under Pillar Two, while tax-incentive benefits expire in whole or in part through FY2034.

  • Customer concentration increased

    Customer concentration increased: one customer represented approximately 14% of FY2026 revenue versus approximately 10% in FY2025. Three customers accounted for 18%, 16% and 10% of accounts receivable at year-end, increasing exposure to demand or collection disruption at a small number of customers.

Management's outlook

The 10-K provides no revenue or EPS outlook. It states that FY2027 capital expenditures will be higher than FY2026 to support the HAMR hard-drive volume ramp, while remaining within the company’s 4%-6% of revenue target range.

Earlier filings 4

10-Q · April 29, 2026

Seagate Technology's latest 10-Q filing reveals a strong Q3 performance with total revenue of $3.112 billion and non-GAAP earnings per share of $4.10, surpassing the consensus estimates of $2.954 billion and $3.45,…

10-Q · January 30, 2026

Seagate reported a strong December quarter with revenue of $2,825 million and diluted EPS of $2.60. Margins expanded materially (gross margin 41.6%, operating margin 29.8%), operating cash flow was robust at $1,255…

10-Q · May 2, 2025

Seagate reported a strong March 2025 quarter with revenue of $2,160 million and net income of $340 million (diluted EPS $1.57), driven by gross margin expansion to ~35.2% and operating income of $431 million.…

10-Q · January 24, 2025

Seagate reported a strong quarter with revenue of $2,325 million (up $770 million or 49.5% vs. prior-year quarter) and operating income of $488 million, driving net income of $336 million and diluted EPS of $1.55. Gross…

This is our reading of a public filing, not the filing itself. Analysis can contain errors; check the source document for full context.