10-Q · May 4, 2026
In the first quarter of 2026, Progressive Corporation reported a decline in revenue and a significant increase in earnings per share (EPS), beating estimates. Revenue decreased to $20.97 billion, down from $22.75…
Earnings analysis · 10-Q
PGR earnings analysis
Filed August 3, 2026 · Our reading of the company's report
The latest report
Progressive delivered 6% year-over-year growth in net premiums earned to $21.573 billion and expanded policies in force 7% to 40.086 million, but revenue was lower sequentially versus the implied first-quarter level.…
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Progressive delivered 6% year-over-year growth in net premiums earned to $21.573 billion and expanded policies in force 7% to 40.086 million, but revenue was lower sequentially versus the implied first-quarter level. Underwriting remained very profitable at a 12.7% margin, yet this was 110 basis points below the prior year as severity and advertising spending increased. Liquidity and capital remain robust, with $8.0 billion of first-half operating cash flow, $45.8 billion of readily liquid Treasury and short-term holdings, and $42.7 billion of total capital.
Where revenue came from
The business segments reported by the company.
Shares of the segments disclosed in this filing, largest first.
How we read each report
Our analysis across the last few reports.
Our model's reading of each filing, not the share price or the market's reaction. Annual and quarterly reports each occupy one position.
What stood out
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Premiums earned grew 6% year over year
Companywide net premiums earned were $21.573 billion, up 6% from $20.310 billion a year earlier, although down from the prior quarter’s implied $20.968 billion based on first-half net premiums earned of $42.541 billion.
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Policy count surpassed 40 million
Companywide policies in force exceeded 40 million, ending at 40.086 million versus 37.315 million a year earlier, a 7% increase. Personal Lines policies grew 8% to 38.860 million.
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Commercial underwriting profitability improved
Commercial Lines underwriting margin improved to 14.7% from 13.2% a year earlier, while its combined ratio improved 1.5 points to 85.3%.
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Property profitability strengthened sharply
Personal property underwriting margin rose to 22.0% from 16.4%, with its combined ratio improving 5.6 points to 78.0%.
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Liquidity remains strong
First-half operating cash flow remained substantial at $8.0 billion. The company held $45.8 billion in short-term investments and U.S. Treasury securities at June 30, 2026.
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Capital base expanded
Total capital increased to $42.7 billion from $37.2 billion at year-end 2025, supported by $5.2 billion of first-half comprehensive income and $1.5 billion of senior-note issuance.
What to watch
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Underwriting margin compressed 110 bps
Companywide underwriting margin fell 1.1 points year over year to 12.7%, as the combined ratio increased to 87.3% from 86.2%; the loss and LAE ratio rose 0.6 points and the underwriting expense ratio rose 0.5 points.
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Higher advertising spending pressures expenses
Advertising expense increased 16% year over year to $1.4 billion in Q2, adding 0.5 points to the underwriting expense ratio. Management intends to continue elevated advertising so long as acquisition costs and profitability targets are met.
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Claims severity remains elevated
Personal auto incurred severity rose 4% year over year, including a 7% increase in bodily-injury severity; core commercial auto trailing-12-month severity increased 5%.
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Personal Lines profitability deteriorated
Personal Lines underwriting margin declined to 12.4% from 14.0%. Agency and direct personal-vehicle combined ratios worsened by 2.0 points and 1.7 points, respectively, to 86.4% and 89.2%.
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Competition is weakening retention
Retention weakened: trailing-12-month personal auto policy life expectancy declined 8%, including declines of 6% in agency and 9% in direct. Management attributed this primarily to greater consumer shopping and competition.
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Catastrophe exposure remains material
Net catastrophe losses increased to $773 million from $707 million, equal to 3.6 combined-ratio points versus 3.5 points a year ago. The filing states there were no material changes to risk factors from the 2025 10-K.
Management's outlook
No explicit numeric earnings or revenue guidance was provided in the 10-Q. Management said it believes personal auto, personal property, and core commercial auto are adequately priced in most states through the remainder of 2026, expects operating cash flows to remain positive for the foreseeable future, and does not anticipate needing to raise capital to support operations during that period.
Earlier filings 4
10-K · March 2, 2026
Progressive’s 2025 10-K shows continued top-line and earnings expansion driven by Personal Lines: premium revenue rose to $81,661 million in 2025 and parent-company net income increased to $11,308 million in 2025. The…
10-Q · August 4, 2025
Progressive reported profitable, above-trend underwriting and premium growth in Q2 2025: companywide underwriting profit margin expanded to 13.8% and net premiums written (NPW) grew meaningfully. Investment portfolio…
10-K · March 3, 2025
Progressive reports multi-year revenue and earnings expansion: premium revenue grew to $70,799 million in 2024 (from $58,665M in 2023 and $49,241M in 2022) and parent-company net income rose to $8,480 million in 2024…
This is our reading of a public filing, not the filing itself. Analysis can contain errors; check the source document for full context.