PED earnings analysis
What we found in PED's 10-Q: the parts that mattered, the offsets in the same document, and what the company said about what comes next.
Our reading of the filing · Free to read, no account needed
PEDEVCO delivered a strong Q2, with $46.1 million of revenue and $1.31 diluted EPS versus consensus of $38.0 million and $0.36, respectively; revenue rose from $40.0 million in Q1 2026 and $7.0 million in Q2 2025. Management expects production to increase in late 2026 and continue into 2027, supported by plans to drill or participate in over 20 gross wells, but provided no formal numerical guidance. The positive operating trajectory is offset by unremediated material weaknesses, derivative losses of $26.3 million for the first six months, and material lease and geopolitical risks.
The parts that mattered.
Pulled out of the filing itself, with the figures the company reported.
- Revenue materially beat consensus
- Q2 revenue was $46.1 million, $8.1 million above the $38.0 million consensus estimate, a 21.4% beat. Revenue also increased from $40.0 million in Q1 2026 and $7.0 million in Q2 2025.
- Earnings turned sharply positive
- Diluted EPS was $1.31 versus the $0.36 consensus estimate, a $0.95 beat. EPS improved from a loss of $3.28 in Q1 2026 and a loss of $0.40 in Q2 2025.
- Expanded asset base drove scale
- Production increased 348% year over year and Adjusted EBITDA increased 516% year over year, supported by the expanded asset base.
- Development activity points to growth
- Management plans to drill or participate in over 20 gross wells over the next several months, with production expected to increase in late 2026 and continue into 2027.
- Phoenix settlement adds cash proceeds
- The Phoenix settlement provides for $6.75 million of payments, including $2.0 million on June 26, 2026, $2.0 million on July 6, 2026, $1.75 million on July 30, 2026, and $1.0 million due September 30, 2026; the first three payments had been received.
And the other side of it.
The offsets in the same document — the things a summary that only listed the good news would have left out.
- Unremediated material weaknesses
- Management concluded as of June 30, 2026 that disclosure controls were not effective because material weaknesses reported in the 2025 Form 10-K had not been remediated. The filing also states there were no material changes to internal control during the three months ended June 30, 2026.
- Geopolitical energy-market volatility
- The company added geopolitical exposure tied to Middle East conflicts and Strait of Hormuz disruption; approximately 20% of global oil supply flows through the chokepoint. The filing warns of commodity volatility, supply-chain disruption, higher costs, and reduced financing access.
- Hedging creates earnings volatility
- Approximately 61% of forecast production is hedged for the second half of 2026, 58% for 2027, and 39% for 2028. Despite a $5.0 million derivative gain in Q2, the company recorded a $26.3 million derivative loss for the first six months of 2026, creating basis, counterparty, and upside-limitation risk.
- PRB lease-cancellation exposure
- The Montana District Court ruling could ultimately cancel leases covering approximately 43,670 net acres in the Powder River Basin, although the company would receive reimbursement of approximately $40.2 million for leasehold purchase amounts if all such leases were cancelled.
- Lease expirations may trigger write-offs
- Lease expirations create potential impairment risk: 3,310 net D-J Basin acres and 720 net PRB acres expired during the first half of 2026, while a further 34,999 PRB acres are scheduled to expire in 2027.
What they reported.
What the company itself reported, taken out of the document.
- Earnings per share
- $1.31
What they said about what is next.
No numerical revenue or EPS guidance was provided. Management plans to drill or participate in over 20 gross wells over the next several months, with production expected to increase in late 2026 and continue into 2027.
The filing reads about the same as the one before it.
What came before.
- 10-Q · May 14, 2026
- PEDEVCO Corp. reported substantial revenue growth in Q1 2026, with actual revenues of $40.2 million compared to $8.7 million in Q1 2025, marking a 360% increase. However, the company posted a net loss of $25.6 million…
- 10-K · March 31, 2026
- PEDEVCO Corp. experienced significant changes in its operational scale following the recent mergers, resulting in a substantial increase in revenue but a continued net loss. The company reported Q4 2025 revenue of $23…
- 10-Q · November 14, 2025
- In Q3 2025, PEDEVCO reported a revenue decrease to $6.9 million from $9.1 million in Q3 2024, and an EPS of $0.00, down from $0.03 last year. Segment performance showed declines primarily in crude oil and NGL sales…
- 10-Q · August 14, 2025
- In Q2 2025, PEDEVCO Corp. reported a net loss of $1.7 million, or ($0.02) EPS, down from a profit of $2.7 million or $0.03 EPS a year ago, influenced by significant revenue decline of 41% to $7 million. The company's…
This is our reading of a public filing, not the filing. Read the original on SEC.gov · Educational only. Nothing here is investment advice.
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