MRNA earnings analysis
What we found in MRNA's 10-Q: the parts that mattered, the offsets in the same document, and what the company said about what comes next.
Our reading of the filing · Free to read, no account needed
Moderna reported Q1 2026 total revenue of $389 million, significantly exceeding consensus estimates of $233.8 million. However, the net loss per share of $(3.40) was larger than the previous year's loss of $(2.52). Notably, the company incurred $955 million in cost of sales, primarily due to a $950 million litigation settlement expense. Management anticipates continued revenue growth in 2026 due to increased sales of COVID vaccines driven by international markets.
The parts that mattered.
Pulled out of the filing itself, with the figures the company reported.
- Q1 2026 Revenue Growth
- Moderna reported total revenue of $389 million, a 260% increase compared to $108 million in Q1 2025.
- Significant EPS Improvement
- The actual diluted EPS of $(3.40) beat estimates of $(3.71), showing a 0.68% surprise.
- Ongoing Cost Management
- Total operating expenses increased by 53% to $1.777 billion, but R&D expenses decreased 24% to $649 million.
- Settlement Agreement Impact
- Q1 2026 cost of sales included $878 million related to the litigation settlement, affecting profitability.
- International Sales Boost
- Net product sales outside the U.S. were $239 million, up from $0 in Q1 2025.
- Cash Balance Decrease
- Cash and cash equivalents decreased from $2.6 billion to $1.9 billion, impacted by operating cash flows.
And the other side of it.
The offsets in the same document — the things a summary that only listed the good news would have left out.
- High Litigation Settlement Expenses
- Record a $950 million litigation charge that severely impacted operational profitability.
- Declining Market Demand for Vaccines
- Market dynamics pose a risk of reduced demand for COVID vaccines amidst competition.
- Increased Operating Losses
- Projected loss of $1.3 billion for Q1 2026, raising concerns about financial sustainability.
What they reported.
What the company itself reported, taken out of the document.
- Earnings per share
- $-3.4
- Gross margin
- 0.342%
- Operating margin
- -0.357%
- Segment
- Net product sales
- Segment
- Other revenue
What they said about what is next.
Management provided an outlook for modest revenue growth in 2026, driven by international sales, without specific numeric guidance.
The filing reads about the same as the one before it.
What came before.
- 10-K · February 20, 2026
- Moderna recorded total revenue of $1.9 billion in 2025, driven largely by COVID vaccine sales and the commercial launch of mNEXSPIKE (launched Q3 2025 and described as the leading product in the U.S. retail channel).…
- 10-Q · November 6, 2025
- Moderna reported Q3 revenue of $1,016 million and GAAP loss per diluted share of $(0.51). Revenue and product sales were materially lower year-over-year (Q3 2025 revenue $1,016M vs Q3 2024 $1,862M) but the quarter…
- 10-Q · May 1, 2025
- Moderna reported Q1 2025 revenue of $108.0 million and GAAP diluted loss per share of $(2.52), with a sharp contraction in gross margin to 16.7% and an operating loss of $1,050 million. Operating cash burn remained…
- 10-Q · August 1, 2024
- Moderna reported Q2 revenue of $241,000,000 and a GAAP net loss of $1,279,000,000 (EPS $(3.33)). Gross margin recovered to 52.3% (cost of sales $115M) after a large prior-year cost base, but the company remains…
This is our reading of a public filing, not the filing. Read the original on SEC.gov · Educational only. Nothing here is investment advice.
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