10-Q · July 23, 2026
Molina's Q2 2026 revenue was $10.874 billion, down 4.8% year over year but up 1.8% sequentially, while GAAP diluted EPS fell to $1.19 from $4.75 in Q2 2025. Margin pressure was pronounced: MCR rose 180 basis points to…
Earnings analysis · 10-Q
MOH earnings analysis
Filed October 22, 2026 · Our reading of the company's report
The latest report
Molina delivered $11.082 billion of Q3 revenue, but profitability weakened: diluted EPS fell to $0.73 from $1.51, operating income declined to $106 million from $137 million, and consolidated MCR rose to 92.9%. Medicaid…
Read full summary
Molina delivered $11.082 billion of Q3 revenue, but profitability weakened: diluted EPS fell to $0.73 from $1.51, operating income declined to $106 million from $137 million, and consolidated MCR rose to 92.9%. Medicaid revenue grew modestly and Medicare margin improved, but Marketplace revenue and membership contracted sharply despite better Marketplace claims performance. Liquidity and operating cash flow improved, yet elevated medical costs, membership reductions, regulatory changes and the MAPD exit leave the earnings recovery unfinished.
Gross and operating margin
How much of each revenue dollar the business keeps.
One point per quarterly or annual filing. Both margins are shares of that report's revenue.
Where revenue came from
The business segments reported by the company.
Shares of the segments disclosed in this filing, largest first.
How we read each report
Our analysis across the last few reports.
Our model's reading of each filing, not the share price or the market's reaction. Annual and quarterly reports each occupy one position.
Reported figures
- Earnings per share
- $0.73
- Operating margin
- 0.96%
What stood out
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Revenue remained above $11 billion
Q3 revenue was $11.082 billion, down from $11.477 billion year over year, while operating income was $106 million versus $137 million. Operating margin was approximately 0.96%.
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Operating cash flow materially improved
Nine-month operating cash flow improved to $629 million from cash used of $237 million in the prior-year period, an $866 million improvement. Capital expenditures were $94 million, although free cash flow was not reported.
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Medicaid and Medicare revenue held up
Medicaid premium revenue increased 2.3% to $8.199 billion, and Medicare premium revenue increased $6 million to $1.616 billion. Medicare medical margin rose to $113 million from $103 million.
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Marketplace cost ratio improved
Marketplace MCR improved to 92.5% from 95.6%, a 310-basis-point improvement, although Marketplace premium revenue fell $555 million to $642 million.
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Liquidity position strengthened
Cash and cash equivalents increased to $4.479 billion from $4.248 billion at year-end, while total cash, cash equivalents and restricted cash increased to $4.618 billion from $4.324 billion.
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Unused revolving credit capacity
The company had $1.25 billion of available borrowing capacity under its revolving credit facility and no amounts outstanding under the Credit Agreement at September 30, 2026.
What to watch
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Medical-cost pressure remains elevated
Consolidated MCR increased to 92.9% from 92.6% year over year, while nine-month MCR increased 130 basis points to 92.1% from 90.8%. Medicaid MCR rose 100 basis points to 93.0%, primarily due to outpatient and high-cost drug costs.
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Membership contraction threatens revenue
Total membership declined to 4.862 million from 5.628 million year over year, a decrease of 766,000 or 14%. Marketplace membership fell to 267,000 from 713,000, while management expects 2027 Marketplace premiums to decline by $1 billion versus 2026.
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Medicaid regulatory changes add uncertainty
The company expects OBBBA-related Medicaid changes to reduce premium revenue at a compounded annual growth rate of 2% to 3% through 2029. Provider-tax and Medicaid provider-payment changes are scheduled to begin in 2028 and may take 5 to 10 years to fully implement.
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MAPD exit creates execution risk
Molina impaired $93 million of MAPD intangible assets in the first quarter and plans to exit the MAPD product for 2027. The company expects Medicare enrollment to decline to 230,000 members by year-end 2026.
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Credit rating downgrade raises funding risk
Standard & Poor’s lowered the senior-note rating to BB- from BB in April 2026. The company had $3.771 billion of long-term debt outstanding at September 30, 2026, and stated that the downgrade could increase borrowing costs.
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Interest-rate exposure increased
Net unrealized losses on current available-for-sale investments were $125 million at September 30, 2026, versus net unrealized gains of $20 million at year-end. A hypothetical immediate 1% increase in market rates would reduce fixed-income fair value by approximately $122 million.
Management's outlook
The 10-Q does not provide or update full-year revenue or EPS guidance. It does provide quantitative operating outlook: 2026 Medicaid enrollment is expected to reach 4.4 million excluding 120,000 Florida Kids members; Medicare enrollment is expected to reach 230,000, or 12% lower; Marketplace enrollment is expected to reach approximately 250,000; and 2027 Marketplace premiums are estimated to be $1 billion below 2026.
Earlier filings 2
10-Q · April 23, 2026
Molina reported Q1 2026 total revenue of $10,796 million and GAAP diluted EPS of $0.27, with operating income of $83 million. Results were driven by lower membership (5.0 million, down 718,000 YoY), higher medical care…
This is our reading of a public filing, not the filing itself. Analysis can contain errors; check the source document for full context.