10-Q · July 24, 2026
Hilltop delivered Q2 revenue of $315.809 million and diluted EPS of $0.63, with year-over-year NII and margin expansion plus strong broker-dealer execution offsetting weakness in mortgage origination. Revenue increased…
Earnings analysis · 10-Q
HTH earnings analysis
Filed October 23, 2026 · Our reading of the company's report
The latest report
Hilltop's Q3 2026 results weakened materially, with diluted EPS of $0.44 versus $0.63 in Q2 2026 and $0.74 in Q3 2025, while revenue of $309.5 million declined from $389 million and $418 million, respectively.…
Read full summary
Hilltop's Q3 2026 results weakened materially, with diluted EPS of $0.44 versus $0.63 in Q2 2026 and $0.74 in Q3 2025, while revenue of $309.5 million declined from $389 million and $418 million, respectively. Management's broader earnings discussion indicated that banking net interest income and balances improved, but mortgage and securities weakness offset those gains. The company provided 2026 operating ranges, including 7%-8% average loan growth and 5%-6% net interest income growth, but no comparable prior outlook was available; the filing also reported no material risk-factor changes from the 2025 Form 10-K.
Gross and operating margin
How much of each revenue dollar the business keeps.
One point per quarterly or annual filing. Both margins are shares of that report's revenue.
How we read each report
Our analysis across the last few reports.
Our model's reading of each filing, not the share price or the market's reaction. Annual and quarterly reports each occupy one position.
Reported figures
- Earnings per share
- $0.44
What stood out
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Asset sensitivity supports NII upside
Banking interest-rate sensitivity remained favorable: a 200-basis-point increase was estimated to raise consolidated net interest income by $42.409 million, or 8.05%.
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Meaningful share repurchases continued
The company repurchased 512,075 shares during the quarter at an average price of $38.96, while $85.528 million remained available under the repurchase authorization at September 30, 2026.
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No control deficiencies reported
Disclosure controls were assessed as effective as of September 30, 2026, and the company reported 0 material changes to internal control over financial reporting during the quarter.
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Debt exposure is predominantly fixed-rate
Consolidated total debt obligations were $150 million at September 30, 2026, and all such debt was subject to fixed interest rates, limiting direct earnings sensitivity to variable-rate debt.
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Positive long-term interest gap
The banking segment's cumulative interest-sensitivity gap was positive $5.063 billion at more than five years, equal to 37.71% of total interest-sensitive assets.
What to watch
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Earnings and revenue missed expectations
Diluted EPS was $0.44 versus $0.64 consensus, a $0.20 miss, and declined from $0.63 in Q2 2026 and $0.74 in Q3 2025. Revenue was $309.5 million versus the $320.3 million estimate, down from $389 million in Q2 2026 and $418 million in Q3 2025.
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Mortgage earnings remain rate-sensitive
Mortgage and securities performance weakened materially according to the quarterly earnings discussion. Mortgage interest-rate exposure remains significant because loan commitments generally run 20-60 days and the average holding period from funding to sale is approximately 30 days.
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Falling rates could pressure earnings
A 200-basis-point decline in rates was estimated to reduce consolidated net interest income by $25.529 million, or 4.85%, and banking-segment economic value of equity by $253.862 million, or 12.20%.
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No formal risk-factor update
The filing states that there were no material changes to the risk factors disclosed in the 2025 Form 10-K. However, the September 30, 2026 analysis identifies a near-term cumulative interest-sensitivity gap of negative $584.287 million for the three-month-or-less bucket.
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Broker-dealer market exposure
Broker-dealer market exposure included $490.971 million of trading securities at fair value, including $372.599 million of debt securities, leaving results exposed to interest-rate, market-price and counterparty movements.
Management's outlook
No comparable prior outlook was disclosed, so guidance direction cannot be determined. The 2026 outlook cited average bank loan growth of 7%-8%, deposit growth of 0%-2%, net interest income growth of 5%-6%, mortgage origination volume of $8-$9 billion, and provision expense of 10-25 basis points.
Earlier filings 4
10-Q · April 24, 2026
Hilltop reported Q1 2026 diluted EPS of $0.64 and consolidated revenue of $300,512,000 (net interest income $112,097,000 + noninterest income $188,415,000). Net interest income rose 7% year-over-year while total…
10-K · February 13, 2026
Hilltop Holdings positions itself as a diversified, Texas-based financial holding company focused on banking, broker-dealer and mortgage origination businesses, pursuing organic growth and acquisitions ("We endeavor to…
10-Q · April 28, 2025
Hilltop reported Q1 2025 diluted EPS of $0.65 and net income of $44,532,000, up from $0.42 and $29,522,000 in Q1 2024. Net interest income was $105,117,000 and noninterest income rose to $213,340,000, while net cash…
This is our reading of a public filing, not the filing itself. Analysis can contain errors; check the source document for full context.