FCEL earnings analysis
What we found in FCEL's 10-Q: the parts that mattered, the offsets in the same document, and what the company said about what comes next.
Our reading of the filing · Free to read, no account needed
FuelCell Energy’s Q3 fiscal 2026 results were weak: revenue fell 29% year over year to $33.001 million and the gross margin deteriorated to approximately negative 74.2%. Commercial indicators were stronger, including a $3.646 billion committed and awarded backlog and data-center agreements covering up to 380 MW, but profitability remains dependent on backlog conversion and substantial cost reduction. Management’s targets of positive Adjusted EBITDA in Q4 fiscal 2027 and production of 500 MW by June 2028 provide an upside framework, but the filing contains no numeric revenue or EPS guidance and identifies continuing fuel-cost and project-impairment risks.
The parts that mattered.
Pulled out of the filing itself, with the figures the company reported.
- Revenue Fell 29% Year Over Year
- Revenue was $33.001 million, down 29% year over year and below the $38.8764 million consensus estimate. Revenue also declined from approximately $36 million in Q2 fiscal 2026.
- Gross Loss Worsened Sharply
- Gross loss was $(24.503) million on $33.001 million of revenue, implying a gross margin of approximately negative 74.2%, versus negative 36.3% in Q2 fiscal 2026 and negative 11.0% in Q3 fiscal 2025.
- Backlog Reached $3.646 Billion
- Committed and awarded capacity backlog reached $3.646 billion, providing a substantial potential demand base despite uncertainty around timing of conversion into revenue.
- Data-Center Pipeline Expanded
- Data-center agreements with Fit Energy cover up to 380 MW, indicating commercial momentum tied to rapidly expanding data-center power demand.
- Production and EBITDA Targets Set
- Management targets positive Adjusted EBITDA in Q4 fiscal 2027, a 100 MW annualized production rate in October 2026, and 500 MW by June 2028.
- Derivative Gains Improved
- The company reported $1.0 million and $1.7 million of interest-rate-swap fair-value gains for the three and nine months ended July 31, 2026, respectively, compared with a $0.6 million three-month gain and a $0.2 million nine-month loss in the prior year.
And the other side of it.
The offsets in the same document — the things a summary that only listed the good news would have left out.
- Fuel Costs Could Trigger Impairments
- The company has four projects with fuel-sourcing risk: Toyota, the 14.0 MW and 2.8 MW Derby projects, and the 7.4 MW LIPA Yaphank project. A $10/MMBTu increase in renewable natural gas pricing would affect annual results by approximately $2.0 million and could result in impairment charges.
- Backlog Conversion Remains Uncertain
- The filing states that backlog conversion depends on customer delivery schedules and execution of cost reductions, while the company is targeting positive Adjusted EBITDA only in Q4 fiscal 2027. The prior analysis reported Adjusted EBITDA of $(36.738) million, including $17.0 million of charges.
- Fuel Contract Coverage Is Time-Limited
- Natural-gas contracts cover the Toyota project through May 2027, the Derby projects through October 2029, and LIPA Yaphank through September 2028; extensions depend on market and credit conditions. The filing states that unfavorable fuel economics may cause impairment charges to the Derby, LIPA Yaphank, and Toyota assets.
- Financing Costs Remain Elevated
- The company pays a fixed 3.716% rate under its interest-rate swaps, with net interest rates of 6.366% for the first four years and 6.866% thereafter. Although management estimates that a 1% rate change would not materially affect results, financing costs remain elevated.
- No Material Risk-Factor Update
- Management states that there were no material changes to the risk factors disclosed in the fiscal 2025 Form 10-K. Accordingly, the principal risks remain execution, financing, fuel economics, and conversion of the $3.646 billion backlog rather than newly disclosed risk-factor changes.
What they reported.
What the company itself reported, taken out of the document.
- Gross margin
- -74.2%
What they said about what is next.
The filing does not provide numeric revenue or EPS guidance. Management targets positive Adjusted EBITDA in Q4 fiscal 2027, a 100 MW annualized production rate in October 2026, and 500 MW by June 2028; these targets are subject to backlog conversion, customer delivery schedules, and cost-reduction execution.
The filing reads about the same as the one before it.
What came before.
- 10-Q · June 8, 2026
- FuelCell Energy reported disappointing Q2 2026 results with revenue of $35.6 million and EPS of -$1.45, both missing estimates of $40.6 million and -$0.46, respectively. The company faces significant challenges with an…
- 10-Q · March 9, 2026
- FuelCell Energy reported Q1 FY2026 revenue of $30,531,000 and a net loss of $26,051,000 (net loss attributable to common stockholders $23,660,000), with diluted loss per share of $0.49. Revenue and EPS improved…
- 10-K · December 18, 2025
- FuelCell Energy positions itself as a provider of modular, large-scale molten carbonate fuel cell systems targeting data centers, utilities and carbon-capture applications; the 10‑K highlights policy tailwinds (30%…
- 10-Q · September 9, 2025
- FuelCell Energy reported Q3 revenue of $46,743,000 (up 97% YoY from $23,695,000 and up ~25% QoQ from Q2 ~$37,406,000) with an improved gross margin of -11.0% vs -26.2% a year ago. Despite revenue growth and higher…
This is our reading of a public filing, not the filing. Read the original on SEC.gov · Educational only. Nothing here is investment advice.
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