AEE earnings analysis
What we found in AEE's 10-Q: the parts that mattered, the offsets in the same document, and what the company said about what comes next.
Our reading of the filing · Free to read, no account needed
Ameren delivered Q2 EPS of $1.13, up 12% year over year and above the supplied $1.06 consensus estimate, despite revenue falling 6% to $2.092 billion. The lower revenue principally reflected a steep Missouri capacity-price reset, while lower fuel and purchased-power costs supported a 340-basis-point year-over-year operating-margin expansion to 21.9%. Growth investment and regulatory recovery opportunities remain substantial, but operating cash flow of $1.191 billion did not cover $2.706 billion of investing outflows in the first half, reinforcing reliance on debt and planned equity issuance.
The parts that mattered.
Pulled out of the filing itself, with the figures the company reported.
- EPS increased 12% year over year
- Q2 diluted EPS rose $0.12 year over year to $1.13 from $1.01, while first-half EPS increased $0.33 to $2.41. EPS was above the supplied $1.06 consensus estimate.
- Revenue declined but margins expanded
- Revenue was $2.092 billion, down $129 million, or 6%, from $2.221 billion a year ago and down $88 million, or 4%, from Q1's $2.180 billion. However, gross margin expanded to 73.9% from 62.5% and operating margin improved to 21.9% from 18.5% year over year, although operating margin declined from 24.5% in Q1.
- Illinois and transmission businesses grew
- Transmission revenue increased $21 million, or 10%, to $229 million; Illinois Electric Distribution revenue increased $56 million, or 10%, to $629 million; and Illinois Natural Gas revenue increased $18 million, or 11%, to $176 million.
- Missouri revenue decline largely fuel-linked
- Ameren Missouri electric revenue fell $221 million, or 17%, to $1.094 billion, but the principal $333 million reduction in off-system, capacity, transmission and FAC revenue was accompanied by a $296 million reduction in Missouri fuel and purchased-power expense.
- Capital program targets load growth
- Ameren invested $2.7 billion in regulated businesses during the first six months. The company has electric-service agreements representing 2.8 GW of demand expected to begin materializing in the second half of 2027 and reach full capacity by the end of 2029.
- Large Missouri rate case offers recovery path
- Ameren Missouri requested a $343 million annual electric revenue increase based on a 10.25% ROE and $16.7 billion rate base. A MoPSC decision is expected by May 2027, with potential new rates in June 2027.
And the other side of it.
The offsets in the same document — the things a summary that only listed the good news would have left out.
- Capital spending materially exceeds operating cash flow
- Cash from operations declined $102 million year over year to $1.191 billion in the first half, while cash used in investing rose $595 million to $2.706 billion. The $2.706 billion investment outflow was 227% of operating cash flow, requiring external financing.
- Equity plan creates dilution risk
- Ameren plans approximately $4 billion of equity financing from 2026-2030; 16.0 million forward-sale shares were outstanding at June 30, plus 1.4 million shares under July forward-sale agreements. Management expects to settle 6.4 million shares in 2026.
- MISO capacity-price reset pressured revenue
- Ameren Missouri's spring capacity prices declined to $70 per MW-day in 2026 from $720 per MW-day in 2025, driving a $333 million quarterly decline in off-system sales, capacity, transmission and FAC revenues.
- O&M cost inflation offsets rate-base benefits
- Other operations and maintenance expense increased $61 million year over year in Q2, including a $44 million increase at Ameren Missouri. Higher reliability measures, vegetation management, Callaway costs, and claims were key drivers.
- FERC incentive policy could reduce earnings
- The potential loss of the 50-basis-point FERC RTO incentive adder would reduce estimated annual net income by $19 million for Ameren and $14 million for Ameren Illinois, based on projected 2026 rate base.
- No formal risk-factor update; funding remains key
- No revised risk factors were presented in Item 1A; the filing instead refers readers to the Form 10-K. Liquidity remains dependent on market access despite $1.929 billion of net available liquidity at June 30, 2026.
What they reported.
What the company itself reported, taken out of the document.
- Earnings per share
- $1.13
- Gross margin
- 73.9%
- Operating margin
- 21.9%
- Segment
- Ameren Missouri revenue: $1.124 billion, down $216 million year over year (electric $1.094 billion, down $221 million; natural gas $30 million, up $5 million).
- Segment
- Ameren Illinois Electric Distribution electric revenue: $629 million, up $56 million, or 10%, year over year.
- Segment
- Ameren Illinois Natural Gas revenue: $176 million, up $18 million, or 11%, year over year.
- Segment
- Ameren Transmission electric revenue: $229 million, up $21 million, or 10%, year over year.
What they said about what is next.
The 10-Q does not provide quantitative EPS or consolidated revenue guidance. Management disclosed up to $33.1 billion of 2026-2030 capital expenditures and an approximately $4 billion 2026-2030 equity-financing plan; Ameren Missouri's $343 million electric-rate request has a MoPSC decision expected by May 2027 and rates potentially effective June 2027.
The filing reads about the same as the one before it.
What came before.
- 10-Q · May 7, 2026
- Ameren Corporation reported Q1 2026 results with earnings per share hitting $1.28, surpassing estimates of $1.17. While total revenue decreased to $2.18 billion from $2.22 billion in Q4 2025, strategic infrastructure…
- 10-K · February 18, 2026
- Ameren’s 10-K shows a stronger 2025 operating performance with consolidated revenue rising to approximately $8.80 billion (sum of quarterly revenues) and annual EPS of about $5.35, driven by a very strong Q3 2025…
- 10-Q · November 6, 2025
- Ameren reported Q3 2025 consolidated revenue of $2,699 million, up $526 million (+24.2%) versus Q3 2024 and above consensus. Operating income expanded to $825 million (30.6% operating margin) and diluted EPS rose to…
- 10-Q · August 5, 2024
- Ameren reported Q2 2024 revenue of $1,693 million (down $123 million, -6.8% vs. Q1 2024 and down $67 million, -3.8% vs. Q2 2023) and diluted EPS of $0.97 (beat consensus and up $0.07, +7.8% vs. Q2 2023). Gross margin…
This is our reading of a public filing, not the filing. Read the original on SEC.gov · Educational only. Nothing here is investment advice.
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