ExxonMobil Holdings Corporation XOM 169.27 -8.19 -4.62%
Expected move
November 04, 2026 close · $169.49| Horizon | Expected move | Typical range | 2 in 3 closes | 9 in 10 closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Next session | ±1.6% ±$2.69 | $166.79 – $172.18 | $166.25 – $172.72 | $163.69 – $175.28 |
| 2 sessions | ±2.2% ±$3.76 | $165.72 – $173.25 | $164.93 – $174.04 | $161.38 – $177.59 |
| 3 sessions | ±2.7% ±$4.59 | $164.89 – $174.08 | $164.01 – $174.96 | $159.72 – $179.25 |
| 1 week | ±3.4% ±$5.67 | $163.81 – $175.16 | $162.54 – $176.43 | $157.38 – $181.59 |
| 2 weeks | ±4.7% ±$7.88 | $161.60 – $177.37 | $159.74 – $179.23 | $152.67 – $186.30 |
| 3 weeks | ±5.5% ±$9.38 | $160.10 – $178.87 | $157.81 – $181.16 | $149.62 – $189.35 |
| 1 month | ±6.5% ±$10.99 | $158.49 – $180.48 | $155.74 – $183.23 | $146.15 – $192.82 |
Earnings: priced against what happened
Average implied move
±2.38%
Average actual move
1.48%
Beyond the implied move
1 / 6
Median IV change
-8.68%
| Reaction session | Implied | Actual | Used | ATM IV before → after |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| October 30, 2026 | ±2.28% | +2.16% | 0.95× | 31.3% → 31.4% |
| July 31, 2026 | ±2.33% | -0.97% | 0.42× | — |
| May 01, 2026 | ±2.58% | -1.02% | 0.40× | 36.2% → 32.1% |
| August 01, 2025 | ±2.19% | -1.79% | 0.82× | 28.0% → 25.5% |
| May 02, 2025 | ±2.60% | +0.41% | 0.16× | 35.1% → 32.5% |
| January 31, 2025 | ±2.32% | -2.50% | 1.08× | 26.9% → 24.2% |