WCN Moves

Waste Connections WCN 191.66 -0.15 -0.08%

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Expected move

November 05, 2026 close · $191.10

Horizon	Expected move	Typical range	2 in 3 closes	9 in 10 closes
Next session	±1.1% ±$2.14	$188.96 – $193.24	$188.52 – $193.68	$186.49 – $195.70
2 sessions	±1.6% ±$2.98	$188.11 – $194.08	$187.48 – $194.71	$184.66 – $197.54
3 sessions	±2.0% ±$3.76	$187.33 – $194.86	$186.60 – $195.59	$183.09 – $199.10
1 week	±2.5% ±$4.77	$186.32 – $195.87	$185.25 – $196.94	$180.91 – $201.28
2 weeks	±3.5% ±$6.70	$184.39 – $197.80	$182.80 – $199.39	$176.78 – $205.41
3 weeks	±4.3% ±$8.31	$182.78 – $199.41	$180.78 – $201.41	$173.55 – $208.64
1 month	±5.2% ±$9.89	$181.20 – $200.99	$178.75 – $203.44	$170.11 – $212.08

Size, not direction. The 68% and 90% bands held 66–68% and 89–90% of closes in held-out years 2019–2026. Draw the cone on the chart →

Volatility premium

Beta

The forecast is for the current session, which this plan does not open.

Earnings: priced against what happened

Average implied move

±3.15%

Average actual move

0.59%

Beyond the implied move

0 / 1

Median IV change

-23.97%

Reaction session	Implied	Actual	Used	ATM IV before → after
February 13, 2025	±3.15%	-0.59%	0.19×	25.1% → 17.5%

Reconstructed from archived mid quotes; the straddle covers its expiration, not only the reaction session. These are not option returns. Method and missing reports →