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Urban Outfitters Inc URBN 87.57 -4.21 -4.59%

Previous-day view · Thu Nov 5 close. You are previewing the previous trading day. Subscribe to see today live and every other date — Trader is $59/mo. Sign up Sign in

Expected move

November 05, 2026 close · $87.75
Horizon Expected move Typical range 2 in 3 closes 9 in 10 closes
Next session ±2.3% ±$2.02 $85.72 – $89.77 $85.31 – $90.19 $83.39 – $92.10
2 sessions ±3.2% ±$2.81 $84.93 – $90.56 $84.32 – $91.17 $81.67 – $93.83
3 sessions ±4.0% ±$3.55 $84.19 – $91.30 $83.51 – $91.98 $80.18 – $95.31
1 week ±5.1% ±$4.51 $83.24 – $92.26 $82.23 – $93.27 $78.13 – $97.36
2 weeks ±7.2% ±$6.33 $81.41 – $94.08 $79.91 – $95.58 $74.23 – $101.26
3 weeks Earnings ±9.7% ±$8.48 $79.26 – $96.23 $77.24 – $98.25 $69.92 – $105.58
1 month Earnings ±11.3% ±$9.92 $77.82 – $97.67 $75.44 – $100.06 $66.88 – $108.61
Size, not direction. The 68% and 90% bands held 66–68% and 89–90% of closes in held-out years 2019–2026. URBN reports in 14 sessions; only the horizons marked Earnings include its jump. Draw the cone on the chart →

Volatility premium

Beta
The forecast is for the current session, which this plan does not open.

Earnings: priced against what happened

Average implied move
±10.51%
Average actual move
10.42%
Beyond the implied move
2 / 7
Median IV change
-6.18%
Reaction session Implied Actual Used ATM IV before → after
August 27, 2026 ±11.57% -5.02% 0.43× —
May 21, 2026 ±10.53% +2.92% 0.28× —
February 26, 2026 ±9.78% +5.04% 0.52× —
August 28, 2025 ±11.99% -10.65% 0.89× —
May 22, 2025 ±9.10% +22.84% 2.51× 66.7% → 85.0%
February 27, 2025 ±10.44% +8.18% 0.78× 72.3% → 43.6%
November 27, 2024 ±10.15% +18.31% 1.80× —
Reconstructed from archived mid quotes; the straddle covers its expiration, not only the reaction session. These are not option returns. Method and missing reports →