Union Pacific Corp UNP 297.95 -10.58 -3.43%
Expected move
November 05, 2026 close · $296.82| Horizon | Expected move | Typical range | 2 in 3 closes | 9 in 10 closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Next session | ±1.3% ±$3.89 | $292.94 – $300.71 | $292.16 – $301.48 | $288.51 – $305.13 |
| 2 sessions | ±1.8% ±$5.41 | $291.42 – $302.23 | $290.29 – $303.35 | $285.19 – $308.46 |
| 3 sessions | ±2.3% ±$6.80 | $290.03 – $303.62 | $288.72 – $304.93 | $282.34 – $311.31 |
| 1 week | ±2.9% ±$8.64 | $288.19 – $305.46 | $286.26 – $307.39 | $278.42 – $315.23 |
| 2 weeks | ±3.7% ±$11.11 | $285.72 – $307.93 | $283.11 – $310.54 | $273.14 – $320.51 |
| 3 weeks | ±4.5% ±$13.33 | $283.50 – $310.15 | $280.26 – $313.39 | $268.68 – $324.96 |
| 1 month | ±5.2% ±$15.53 | $281.30 – $312.35 | $277.44 – $316.21 | $263.94 – $329.71 |
Earnings: priced against what happened
Average implied move
±3.55%
Average actual move
4.11%
Beyond the implied move
4 / 7
Median IV change
-14.79%
| Reaction session | Implied | Actual | Used | ATM IV before → after |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| October 22, 2026 | ±3.25% | +3.55% | 1.09× | — |
| July 23, 2026 | ±4.05% | +4.02% | 0.99× | — |
| April 23, 2026 | ±3.57% | +8.77% | 2.46× | — |
| January 27, 2026 | ±3.58% | +0.72% | 0.20× | — |
| July 24, 2025 | ±3.05% | -4.54% | 1.49× | — |
| April 24, 2025 | ±3.84% | -1.97% | 0.51× | 33.2% → 24.7% |
| January 23, 2025 | ±3.50% | +5.20% | 1.48× | 26.5% → 25.4% |