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Shopify Inc SHOP 143.75 -9.28 -6.06%

Previous-day view · Thu Nov 5 close. You are previewing the previous trading day. Subscribe to see today live and every other date — Trader is $59/mo. Sign up Sign in

Expected move

November 05, 2026 close · $143.51
Horizon Expected move Typical range 2 in 3 closes 9 in 10 closes
Next session ±3.5% ±$4.96 $138.56 – $148.47 $137.57 – $149.46 $132.89 – $154.14
2 sessions ±4.3% ±$6.19 $137.33 – $149.70 $136.02 – $151.01 $130.18 – $156.85
3 sessions ±5.2% ±$7.47 $136.05 – $150.98 $134.60 – $152.43 $127.61 – $159.42
1 week ±6.4% ±$9.16 $134.36 – $152.67 $132.32 – $154.71 $124.00 – $163.03
2 weeks ±8.7% ±$12.49 $131.03 – $156.00 $128.07 – $158.96 $116.88 – $170.15
3 weeks ±10.3% ±$14.82 $128.70 – $158.33 $125.10 – $161.93 $112.23 – $174.80
1 month ±11.8% ±$16.87 $126.65 – $160.38 $122.46 – $164.57 $107.77 – $179.26
Size, not direction. The 68% and 90% bands held 66–68% and 89–90% of closes in held-out years 2019–2026. Draw the cone on the chart →

Volatility premium

Beta
The forecast is for the current session, which this plan does not open.

Earnings: priced against what happened

Average implied move
±12.67%
Average actual move
11.15%
Beyond the implied move
3 / 6
Median IV change
-45.75%
Reaction session Implied Actual Used ATM IV before → after
November 03, 2026 ±14.87% -8.74% 0.59× —
August 05, 2026 ±13.36% +16.98% 1.27× —
May 05, 2026 ±12.58% -15.62% 1.24× —
August 06, 2025 ±10.53% +21.97% 2.09× —
May 08, 2025 ±11.16% -0.53% 0.05× 81.7% → 54.2%
February 11, 2025 ±13.49% +3.08% 0.23× 100.9% → 42.6%
Reconstructed from archived mid quotes; the straddle covers its expiration, not only the reaction session. These are not option returns. Method and missing reports →