Progressive Corporation PGR 233.18 -1.64 -0.7%
Expected move
November 05, 2026 close · $233.75| Horizon | Expected move | Typical range | 2 in 3 closes | 9 in 10 closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Next session | ±1.3% ±$2.99 | $230.76 – $236.74 | $230.15 – $237.35 | $227.35 – $240.15 |
| 2 sessions | ±1.8% ±$4.16 | $229.59 – $237.91 | $228.70 – $238.80 | $224.80 – $242.70 |
| 3 sessions | ±2.2% ±$5.24 | $228.51 – $238.99 | $227.51 – $239.99 | $222.60 – $244.90 |
| 1 week | ±2.9% ±$6.66 | $227.09 – $240.41 | $225.62 – $241.88 | $219.58 – $247.92 |
| 2 weeks | ±4.0% ±$9.33 | $224.42 – $243.08 | $222.20 – $245.30 | $213.83 – $253.67 |
| 3 weeks | ±5.0% ±$11.71 | $222.04 – $245.46 | $219.21 – $248.29 | $209.02 – $258.48 |
| 1 month | ±5.6% ±$13.14 | $220.61 – $246.89 | $217.34 – $250.16 | $205.89 – $261.61 |
Earnings: priced against what happened
Average implied move
±3.95%
Average actual move
3.34%
Beyond the implied move
3 / 8
Median IV change
-22.53%
| Reaction session | Implied | Actual | Used | ATM IV before → after |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| October 14, 2026 | ±3.77% | -4.23% | 1.12× | — |
| July 15, 2026 | ±3.42% | -9.43% | 2.76× | — |
| April 15, 2026 | ±4.20% | +2.36% | 0.56× | — |
| January 28, 2026 | ±3.94% | +2.24% | 0.57× | — |
| October 15, 2025 | ±3.85% | -5.78% | 1.50× | — |
| July 16, 2025 | ±3.98% | +1.76% | 0.44× | 31.0% → 24.0% |
| April 16, 2025 | ±3.78% | -0.35% | 0.09× | 32.9% → 32.8% |
| January 29, 2025 | ±4.65% | +0.55% | 0.12× | 33.8% → 23.0% |