MUSA Moves

MURPHY USA INC MUSA 514.53 12.11 2.41%

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Expected move

November 05, 2026 close · $514.53

Horizon	Expected move	Typical range	2 in 3 closes	9 in 10 closes
Next session	±1.8% ±$9.42	$505.11 – $523.95	$503.21 – $525.85	$494.31 – $534.75
2 sessions	±2.5% ±$13.12	$501.41 – $527.65	$498.63 – $530.43	$486.23 – $542.83
3 sessions	±3.2% ±$16.52	$498.01 – $531.05	$494.82 – $534.24	$479.39 – $549.67
1 week	±4.1% ±$20.99	$493.54 – $535.52	$488.85 – $540.21	$469.82 – $559.24
2 weeks	±5.7% ±$29.43	$485.10 – $543.96	$478.10 – $550.96	$451.71 – $577.35
3 weeks	±6.8% ±$35.25	$479.28 – $549.78	$470.69 – $558.37	$440.03 – $589.03
1 month	±7.9% ±$40.85	$473.68 – $555.38	$463.54 – $565.52	$427.93 – $601.13

Size, not direction. The 68% and 90% bands held 66–68% and 89–90% of closes in held-out years 2019–2026. Draw the cone on the chart →

Volatility premium

Beta

The forecast is for the current session, which this plan does not open.

Earnings: priced against what happened

Average implied move

±6.00%

Average actual move

12.28%

Beyond the implied move

1 / 1

Reaction session	Implied	Actual	Used	ATM IV before → after
May 08, 2025	±6.00%	-12.28%	2.05×	—

Reconstructed from archived mid quotes; the straddle covers its expiration, not only the reaction session. These are not option returns. Method and missing reports →