MTB Moves

M&T Bank Corp MTB 219.78 -4.86 -2.16%

Previous-day view · Thu Nov 5 close. You are previewing the previous trading day. Subscribe to see today live and every other date — Trader is $59/mo. Sign up Sign in

Expected move

November 05, 2026 close · $219.71

Horizon	Expected move	Typical range	2 in 3 closes	9 in 10 closes
Next session	±1.3% ±$2.79	$216.92 – $222.50	$216.35 – $223.07	$213.71 – $225.71
2 sessions	±1.8% ±$3.89	$215.82 – $223.60	$214.99 – $224.43	$211.32 – $228.10
3 sessions	±2.2% ±$4.90	$214.81 – $224.61	$213.87 – $225.55	$209.27 – $230.15
1 week	±2.8% ±$6.24	$213.47 – $225.95	$212.09 – $227.33	$206.44 – $232.98
2 weeks	±4.0% ±$8.74	$210.97 – $228.45	$208.90 – $230.52	$201.06 – $238.36
3 weeks	±4.8% ±$10.44	$209.27 – $230.15	$206.75 – $232.67	$197.67 – $241.75
1 month	±5.5% ±$12.04	$207.67 – $231.75	$204.68 – $234.74	$194.18 – $245.24

Size, not direction. The 68% and 90% bands held 66–68% and 89–90% of closes in held-out years 2019–2026. Draw the cone on the chart →

Volatility premium

Beta

The forecast is for the current session, which this plan does not open.

Earnings: priced against what happened

Average implied move

±4.84%

Average actual move

1.89%

Beyond the implied move

0 / 5

Median IV change

-21.72%

Reaction session	Implied	Actual	Used	ATM IV before → after
July 15, 2026	±4.13%	+2.76%	0.67×	—
April 15, 2026	±4.33%	-1.55%	0.36×	—
July 16, 2025	±4.30%	-2.41%	0.56×	28.0% → 21.8%
April 14, 2025	±7.12%	+0.35%	0.05×	46.5% → 36.5%
January 16, 2025	±4.31%	-2.37%	0.55×	—

Reconstructed from archived mid quotes; the straddle covers its expiration, not only the reaction session. These are not option returns. Method and missing reports →