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MongoDB MDB 304.59 -23.79 -7.24%

Previous-day view · Thu Nov 5 close. You are previewing the previous trading day. Subscribe to see today live and every other date — Trader is $59/mo. Sign up Sign in

Expected move

November 05, 2026 close · $305.12
Horizon Expected move Typical range 2 in 3 closes 9 in 10 closes
Next session ±3.0% ±$9.30 $295.81 – $314.42 $293.95 – $316.29 $285.16 – $325.07
2 sessions ±4.2% ±$12.93 $292.18 – $318.05 $289.43 – $320.80 $277.20 – $333.04
3 sessions ±5.3% ±$16.29 $288.82 – $321.41 $285.68 – $324.55 $270.43 – $339.81
1 week ±6.8% ±$20.72 $284.40 – $325.84 $279.79 – $330.44 $261.00 – $349.24
2 weeks ±9.5% ±$29.08 $276.04 – $334.20 $269.17 – $341.06 $243.09 – $367.15
3 weeks ±11.8% ±$36.00 $269.11 – $341.12 $260.36 – $349.88 $229.05 – $381.18
1 month Earnings ±21.0% ±$63.98 $241.13 – $369.10 $225.70 – $384.54 $170.56 – $439.67
Size, not direction. The 68% and 90% bands held 66–68% and 89–90% of closes in held-out years 2019–2026. MDB reports in 17 sessions; only the horizons marked Earnings include its jump. Draw the cone on the chart →

Volatility premium

Beta
The forecast is for the current session, which this plan does not open.

Earnings: priced against what happened

Average implied move
±15.39%
Average actual move
19.07%
Beyond the implied move
4 / 7
Median IV change
-42.81%
Reaction session Implied Actual Used ATM IV before → after
September 02, 2026 ±16.02% -13.54% 0.85× —
May 29, 2026 ±17.26% +3.03% 0.18× 120.7% → 69.0%
March 03, 2026 ±16.61% -22.24% 1.34× —
August 27, 2025 ±16.22% +37.96% 2.34× —
June 05, 2025 ±13.64% +12.84% 0.94× 93.0% → 47.2%
March 06, 2025 ±13.39% -26.94% 2.01× —
December 10, 2024 ±14.59% -16.92% 1.16× 111.9% → 81.3%
Reconstructed from archived mid quotes; the straddle covers its expiration, not only the reaction session. These are not option returns. Method and missing reports →