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Southwest Airlines Co LUV 44.44 -1.98 -4.27%

Previous-day view · Thu Nov 5 close. You are previewing the previous trading day. Subscribe to see today live and every other date — Trader is $59/mo. Sign up Sign in

Expected move

November 05, 2026 close · $44.42
Horizon Expected move Typical range 2 in 3 closes 9 in 10 closes
Next session ±2.2% ±$0.97 $43.45 – $45.39 $43.25 – $45.59 $42.34 – $46.50
2 sessions ±3.0% ±$1.35 $43.07 – $45.77 $42.78 – $46.06 $41.51 – $47.33
3 sessions ±3.8% ±$1.70 $42.72 – $46.12 $42.39 – $46.45 $40.80 – $48.04
1 week ±4.9% ±$2.16 $42.26 – $46.58 $41.78 – $47.06 $39.81 – $49.03
2 weeks ±7.0% ±$3.09 $41.33 – $47.51 $40.60 – $48.24 $37.84 – $51.00
3 weeks ±8.6% ±$3.80 $40.62 – $48.22 $39.70 – $49.14 $36.39 – $52.45
1 month ±10.0% ±$4.43 $39.99 – $48.85 $38.89 – $49.95 $35.03 – $53.81
Size, not direction. The 68% and 90% bands held 66–68% and 89–90% of closes in held-out years 2019–2026. Draw the cone on the chart →

Volatility premium

Beta
The forecast is for the current session, which this plan does not open.

Earnings: priced against what happened

Average implied move
±6.74%
Average actual move
8.69%
Beyond the implied move
2 / 4
Median IV change
-26.90%
Reaction session Implied Actual Used ATM IV before → after
January 29, 2026 ±7.44% +18.70% 2.51× —
July 24, 2025 ±6.96% -11.16% 1.60× —
April 24, 2025 ±6.74% +3.68% 0.55× 58.5% → 45.0%
January 30, 2025 ±5.81% -1.23% 0.21× 43.3% → 30.0%
Reconstructed from archived mid quotes; the straddle covers its expiration, not only the reaction session. These are not option returns. Method and missing reports →