HUM Moves

Humana Inc HUM 411.79 -5.63 -1.35%

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Expected move

November 05, 2026 close · $409.00

Horizon	Expected move	Typical range	2 in 3 closes	9 in 10 closes
Next session Earnings	±6.2% ±$25.32	$383.68 – $434.32	$377.26 – $440.74	$353.83 – $464.17
2 sessions Earnings	±6.8% ±$27.85	$381.15 – $436.85	$374.32 – $443.68	$348.59 – $469.41
3 sessions Earnings	±7.4% ±$30.27	$378.73 – $439.27	$371.74 – $446.26	$344.09 – $473.91
1 week Earnings	±8.1% ±$33.13	$375.87 – $442.13	$367.90 – $450.10	$339.39 – $478.61
2 weeks Earnings	±9.4% ±$38.61	$370.39 – $447.61	$361.31 – $456.69	$327.57 – $490.43
3 weeks Earnings	±10.6% ±$43.19	$365.81 – $452.19	$355.54 – $462.46	$318.20 – $499.80
1 month Earnings	±11.7% ±$47.98	$361.02 – $456.98	$349.45 – $468.55	$308.14 – $509.86

Size, not direction. The 68% and 90% bands held 66–68% and 89–90% of closes in held-out years 2019–2026. HUM reports in 1 session; only the horizons marked Earnings include its jump. Draw the cone on the chart →

Volatility premium

Beta

The forecast is for the current session, which this plan does not open.

Earnings: priced against what happened

Average implied move

±8.08%

Average actual move

5.37%

Beyond the implied move

1 / 6

Median IV change

-8.98%

Reaction session	Implied	Actual	Used	ATM IV before → after
July 29, 2026	±8.93%	-5.99%	0.67×	—
April 29, 2026	±8.23%	+5.83%	0.71×	—
July 30, 2025	±7.61%	+12.40%	1.63×	53.5% → 54.8%
April 30, 2025	±9.25%	+1.11%	0.12×	74.5% → 62.4%
February 11, 2025	±7.53%	-3.55%	0.47×	—
October 30, 2024	±6.91%	+3.32%	0.48×	75.2% → 68.5%

Reconstructed from archived mid quotes; the straddle covers its expiration, not only the reaction session. These are not option returns. Method and missing reports →