HSY Moves

The Hershey Company HSY 174.5 6.96 4.15%

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Expected move

November 04, 2026 close · $174.77

Horizon	Expected move	Typical range	2 in 3 closes	9 in 10 closes
Next session	±1.1% ±$2.01	$172.76 – $176.78	$172.36 – $177.18	$170.47 – $179.07
2 sessions	±1.6% ±$2.80	$171.97 – $177.57	$171.38 – $178.16	$168.76 – $180.78
3 sessions	±2.0% ±$3.57	$171.20 – $178.34	$170.51 – $179.03	$167.17 – $182.37
1 week	±2.6% ±$4.60	$170.17 – $179.37	$169.14 – $180.40	$164.97 – $184.57
2 weeks	±3.8% ±$6.59	$168.18 – $181.36	$166.63 – $182.91	$160.72 – $188.82
3 weeks	±4.6% ±$8.02	$166.75 – $182.79	$164.79 – $184.75	$157.82 – $191.72
1 month	±5.5% ±$9.65	$165.12 – $184.42	$162.73 – $186.81	$154.30 – $195.24

Size, not direction. The 68% and 90% bands held 66–68% and 89–90% of closes in held-out years 2019–2026. Draw the cone on the chart →

Volatility premium

Beta

The forecast is for the current session, which this plan does not open.

Earnings: priced against what happened

Average implied move

±4.32%

Average actual move

1.80%

Beyond the implied move

0 / 5

Median IV change

-23.99%

Reaction session	Implied	Actual	Used	ATM IV before → after
October 29, 2026	±4.46%	-2.13%	0.48×	38.2% → 27.4%
July 30, 2026	±4.40%	-3.63%	0.82×	—
April 30, 2026	±4.10%	-1.81%	0.44×	—
July 30, 2025	±4.16%	+1.40%	0.34×	36.2% → 29.1%
May 01, 2025	±4.46%	-0.04%	0.01×	—

Reconstructed from archived mid quotes; the straddle covers its expiration, not only the reaction session. These are not option returns. Method and missing reports →