Robinhood Markets HOOD 78.39 -9.02 -10.32% Regime: Trend Down (90%)
Expected move
November 05, 2026 close · $78.89| Horizon | Expected move | Typical range | 2 in 3 closes | 9 in 10 closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Next session | ±4.3% ±$3.35 | $75.54 – $82.24 | $74.87 – $82.91 | $71.70 – $86.08 |
| 2 sessions | ±5.5% ±$4.30 | $74.59 – $83.19 | $73.67 – $84.10 | $69.61 – $88.17 |
| 3 sessions | ±6.7% ±$5.25 | $73.64 – $84.14 | $72.62 – $85.16 | $67.70 – $90.08 |
| 1 week | ±8.3% ±$6.51 | $72.38 – $85.40 | $70.93 – $86.85 | $65.02 – $92.76 |
| 2 weeks | ±10.9% ±$8.60 | $70.29 – $87.49 | $68.26 – $89.52 | $60.55 – $97.23 |
| 3 weeks | ±12.9% ±$10.22 | $68.67 – $89.11 | $66.19 – $91.59 | $57.31 – $100.47 |
| 1 month | ±15.0% ±$11.82 | $67.07 – $90.71 | $64.15 – $93.63 | $53.84 – $103.94 |
Earnings: priced against what happened
Average implied move
±9.96%
Average actual move
7.68%
Beyond the implied move
2 / 6
Median IV change
-26.47%
| Reaction session | Implied | Actual | Used | ATM IV before → after |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| October 28, 2026 | ±8.83% | -3.31% | 0.37× | — |
| July 30, 2026 | ±9.46% | -3.61% | 0.38× | — |
| April 29, 2026 | ±9.35% | -13.24% | 1.42× | — |
| February 11, 2026 | ±10.63% | -8.91% | 0.84× | — |
| July 31, 2025 | ±9.12% | -2.87% | 0.32× | 74.5% → 60.2% |
| February 13, 2025 | ±12.39% | +14.11% | 1.14× | 91.1% → 60.4% |