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Circle Internet Group CRCL 69.48 -6.64 -8.72%

Previous-day view · Thu Nov 5 close. You are previewing the previous trading day. Subscribe to see today live and every other date — Trader is $59/mo. Sign up Sign in

Expected move

November 05, 2026 close · $69.59
Horizon Expected move Typical range 2 in 3 closes 9 in 10 closes
Next session ±4.7% ±$3.23 $66.36 – $72.83 $65.70 – $73.49 $62.64 – $76.55
2 sessions ±6.0% ±$4.20 $65.40 – $73.79 $64.51 – $74.68 $60.55 – $78.64
3 sessions ±7.4% ±$5.16 $64.44 – $74.75 $63.45 – $75.74 $58.63 – $80.56
1 week ±9.2% ±$6.41 $63.19 – $76.00 $61.77 – $77.42 $55.95 – $83.24
2 weeks ±12.2% ±$8.47 $61.13 – $78.06 $59.12 – $80.07 $51.53 – $87.66
3 weeks ±14.3% ±$9.92 $59.67 – $79.52 $57.26 – $81.93 $48.63 – $90.56
1 month ±17.1% ±$11.91 $57.69 – $81.50 $54.74 – $84.45 $44.36 – $94.83
Size, not direction. The 68% and 90% bands held 66–68% and 89–90% of closes in held-out years 2019–2026. Draw the cone on the chart →

Volatility premium

Beta
The forecast is for the current session, which this plan does not open.

Earnings: priced against what happened

Average implied move
±11.82%
Average actual move
10.78%
Beyond the implied move
2 / 5
Median IV change
-14.21%
Reaction session Implied Actual Used ATM IV before → after
November 04, 2026 ±10.80% +1.20% 0.11× —
August 05, 2026 ±12.37% +0.05% 0.00× —
May 11, 2026 ±13.50% +15.91% 1.18× —
February 25, 2026 ±10.92% +35.47% 3.25× —
August 12, 2025 ±11.49% +1.27% 0.11× 102.0% → 87.5%
Reconstructed from archived mid quotes; the straddle covers its expiration, not only the reaction session. These are not option returns. Method and missing reports →