COP Moves

ConocoPhillips COP 136.94 -7.46 -5.17%

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Expected move

November 04, 2026 close · $136.94

Horizon	Expected move	Typical range	2 in 3 closes	9 in 10 closes
Next session Earnings	±2.6% ±$3.55	$133.39 – $140.49	$132.49 – $141.39	$129.20 – $144.68
2 sessions Earnings	±3.1% ±$4.27	$132.67 – $141.21	$131.61 – $142.27	$127.67 – $146.21
3 sessions Earnings	±3.6% ±$4.96	$131.98 – $141.90	$130.85 – $143.03	$126.31 – $147.57
1 week Earnings	±4.3% ±$5.90	$131.04 – $142.84	$129.61 – $144.27	$124.53 – $149.35
2 weeks Earnings	±5.6% ±$7.68	$129.26 – $144.62	$127.45 – $146.43	$120.74 – $153.14
3 weeks Earnings	±6.6% ±$9.07	$127.87 – $146.01	$125.71 – $148.17	$117.88 – $156.00
1 month Earnings	±7.6% ±$10.45	$126.49 – $147.39	$123.96 – $149.92	$114.96 – $158.92

Size, not direction. The 68% and 90% bands held 66–68% and 89–90% of closes in held-out years 2019–2026. COP reports in 1 session; only the horizons marked Earnings include its jump. Draw the cone on the chart →

Volatility premium

Beta

The forecast is for the current session, which this plan does not open.

Earnings: priced against what happened

Average implied move

±3.17%

Average actual move

1.98%

Beyond the implied move

1 / 6

Median IV change

-11.75%

Reaction session	Implied	Actual	Used	ATM IV before → after
August 06, 2026	±3.24%	+1.50%	0.46×	35.8% → 31.9%
April 30, 2026	±3.43%	-1.93%	0.56×	40.7% → 35.6%
August 07, 2025	±3.00%	-0.55%	0.18×	33.3% → 29.2%
May 08, 2025	±3.37%	+1.27%	0.37×	39.3% → 34.9%
February 06, 2025	±3.03%	-0.27%	0.09×	28.2% → 24.0%
October 31, 2024	±2.94%	+6.37%	2.17×	35.1% → 35.2%

Reconstructed from archived mid quotes; the straddle covers its expiration, not only the reaction session. These are not option returns. Method and missing reports →