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Carnival Corporation Ltd CCL 29.59 -1.73 -5.52%

Previous-day view · Thu Nov 5 close. You are previewing the previous trading day. Subscribe to see today live and every other date — Trader is $59/mo. Sign up Sign in

Expected move

November 05, 2026 close · $29.37
Horizon Expected move Typical range 2 in 3 closes 9 in 10 closes
Next session ±1.8% ±$0.51 $28.86 – $29.88 $28.75 – $29.99 $28.27 – $30.47
2 sessions ±2.4% ±$0.72 $28.65 – $30.09 $28.50 – $30.24 $27.83 – $30.91
3 sessions ±3.1% ±$0.90 $28.47 – $30.27 $28.30 – $30.44 $27.45 – $31.29
1 week ±3.9% ±$1.15 $28.22 – $30.52 $27.97 – $30.77 $26.93 – $31.81
2 weeks ±5.5% ±$1.61 $27.76 – $30.98 $27.38 – $31.36 $25.94 – $32.80
3 weeks ±6.8% ±$1.99 $27.38 – $31.36 $26.89 – $31.85 $25.16 – $33.58
1 month ±8.1% ±$2.37 $27.00 – $31.74 $26.41 – $32.33 $24.34 – $34.40
Size, not direction. The 68% and 90% bands held 66–68% and 89–90% of closes in held-out years 2019–2026. CCL reports in 30 sessions; only the horizons marked Earnings include its jump. Draw the cone on the chart →

Volatility premium

Beta
The forecast is for the current session, which this plan does not open.

Earnings: priced against what happened

Average implied move
±7.01%
Average actual move
5.88%
Beyond the implied move
2 / 7
Median IV change
-23.87%
Reaction session Implied Actual Used ATM IV before → after
September 29, 2026 ±7.11% +13.41% 1.89× —
June 23, 2026 ±6.87% -4.87% 0.71× —
March 27, 2026 ±7.89% -4.31% 0.55× —
September 29, 2025 ±6.97% -3.98% 0.57× 52.8% → 41.9%
June 24, 2025 ±6.34% +6.91% 1.09× 57.4% → 42.4%
March 21, 2025 ±6.56% -1.23% 0.19× 58.4% → 45.7%
December 20, 2024 ±7.29% +6.43% 0.88× 63.2% → 37.5%
Reconstructed from archived mid quotes; the straddle covers its expiration, not only the reaction session. These are not option returns. Method and missing reports →