Applied Digital Corporation Common Stock APLD 14.17 -2.44 -14.69%
Expected move
November 05, 2026 close · $14.40| Horizon | Expected move | Typical range | 2 in 3 closes | 9 in 10 closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Next session | ±7.1% ±$1.03 | $13.37 – $15.43 | $13.17 – $15.63 | $12.20 – $16.60 |
| 2 sessions | ±9.6% ±$1.38 | $13.02 – $15.78 | $12.73 – $16.07 | $11.42 – $17.38 |
| 3 sessions | ±11.9% ±$1.72 | $12.68 – $16.12 | $12.35 – $16.45 | $10.74 – $18.06 |
| 1 week | ±15.0% ±$2.16 | $12.24 – $16.56 | $11.75 – $17.05 | $9.79 – $19.01 |
| 2 weeks | ±20.0% ±$2.88 | $11.52 – $17.28 | $10.84 – $17.96 | $8.26 – $20.54 |
| 3 weeks | ±23.7% ±$3.41 | $10.99 – $17.81 | $10.16 – $18.64 | $7.19 – $21.61 |
| 1 month | ±25.6% ±$3.69 | $10.71 – $18.09 | $9.79 – $19.01 | $6.57 – $22.23 |
Earnings: priced against what happened
Average implied move
±14.78%
Average actual move
14.35%
Beyond the implied move
3 / 6
Median IV change
-17.27%
| Reaction session | Implied | Actual | Used | ATM IV before → after |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| October 08, 2026 | ±10.75% | +0.17% | 0.02× | 95.9% → 75.7% |
| July 28, 2026 | ±14.90% | +0.93% | 0.06× | 137.2% → 113.5% |
| October 10, 2025 | ±14.95% | +16.05% | 1.07× | 155.6% → 140.9% |
| July 31, 2025 | ±11.86% | +31.01% | 2.61× | 113.5% → 98.2% |
| April 15, 2025 | ±17.41% | -35.94% | 2.06× | — |
| January 15, 2025 | ±18.79% | -1.99% | 0.11× | 148.0% → 106.4% |