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Affirm Holdings AFRM 69.66 -5.93 -7.84%

Previous-day view · Thu Nov 5 close. You are previewing the previous trading day. Subscribe to see today live and every other date — Trader is $59/mo. Sign up Sign in

Expected move

November 05, 2026 close · $70.08
Horizon Expected move Typical range 2 in 3 closes 9 in 10 closes
Next session Earnings ±9.1% ±$6.39 $63.69 – $76.47 $62.07 – $78.09 $56.14 – $84.02
2 sessions Earnings ±9.9% ±$6.96 $63.12 – $77.04 $61.42 – $78.74 $55.00 – $85.16
3 sessions Earnings ±10.7% ±$7.48 $62.59 – $77.56 $60.86 – $79.29 $54.02 – $86.14
1 week Earnings ±11.5% ±$8.06 $62.01 – $78.14 $60.06 – $80.09 $53.13 – $87.03
2 weeks Earnings ±13.1% ±$9.18 $60.90 – $79.26 $58.74 – $81.42 $50.73 – $89.43
3 weeks Earnings ±14.4% ±$10.11 $59.97 – $80.19 $57.56 – $82.60 $48.82 – $91.34
1 month Earnings ±15.8% ±$11.11 $58.97 – $81.19 $56.29 – $83.86 $46.72 – $93.44
Size, not direction. The 68% and 90% bands held 66–68% and 89–90% of closes in held-out years 2019–2026. AFRM reports in 1 session; only the horizons marked Earnings include its jump. Draw the cone on the chart →

Volatility premium

Beta
The forecast is for the current session, which this plan does not open.

Earnings: priced against what happened

Average implied move
±12.54%
Average actual move
12.96%
Beyond the implied move
2 / 4
Median IV change
-35.94%
Reaction session Implied Actual Used ATM IV before → after
May 08, 2026 ±10.80% -4.97% 0.46× 106.9% → 72.2%
August 29, 2025 ±12.63% +10.59% 0.84× 95.5% → 56.8%
May 09, 2025 ±12.85% -14.47% 1.13× 104.2% → 66.8%
February 07, 2025 ±13.89% +21.81% 1.57× —
Reconstructed from archived mid quotes; the straddle covers its expiration, not only the reaction session. These are not option returns. Method and missing reports →