Expected moves · VistaShares Artificial Intelligence Supercycle ETF
AIS expected move
September 18, 2026 close · $72.06 · Trading sessions, not calendar days
$70.38 – $73.74
$68.32 – $75.80
$64.32 – $79.80
The range priced in
Recent closes on the left. Expected movement on the right.
The bands show historically calibrated ranges, not a prediction of direction. A wider band means more movement is priced in.
Ranges by horizon
All ranges are measured from the $72.06 close.
| Horizon | Expected move | Typical range | 2 in 3 closes | 9 in 10 closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Next session | ±2.3% ±$1.68 | $70.38 – $73.74 | $70.04 – $74.08 | $68.46 – $75.66 |
| 2 sessions | ±3.2% ±$2.33 | $69.73 – $74.39 | $69.23 – $74.89 | $67.02 – $77.10 |
| 3 sessions | ±4.1% ±$2.94 | $69.12 – $75.00 | $68.55 – $75.57 | $65.80 – $78.32 |
| 1 week | ±5.2% ±$3.74 | $68.32 – $75.80 | $67.49 – $76.63 | $64.10 – $80.02 |
| 2 weeks | ±7.3% ±$5.25 | $66.81 – $77.31 | $65.57 – $78.55 | $60.87 – $83.25 |
| 3 weeks | ±9.0% ±$6.49 | $65.57 – $78.55 | $63.98 – $80.14 | $58.33 – $85.79 |
| 1 month | ±10.7% ±$7.74 | $64.32 – $79.80 | $62.40 – $81.72 | $55.66 – $88.46 |
How the expected move is calculated
We use the at-the-money straddle from every listed expiration, place each on trading sessions, and interpolate the horizons between them. Upcoming earnings are separated from everyday movement.
The result is calibrated against realised moves over 2016–2026. In tests on held-out years from 2019–2026, the 68% and 90% ranges contained 66–68% and 89–90% of closes. Historical coverage is not a guarantee for the next session.
A week means five trading sessions and a month means twenty-one. These are estimates of size, not direction.