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Versant Media Group VSNT 31.42 0.42 1.34%

Previous-day view · Fri Oct 30 close. You are previewing the previous trading day. Subscribe to see today live and every other date — Trader is $59/mo. Sign up Sign in
Priced to move · next session

Priced to move is the size of move the options market charges for, read from the at-the-money straddles across the expiry ladder and scaled to the horizon shown. It is a size, not a direction: the market prices how far, never which way.

The dollar figure is that size from the session's close. For SPY and SPX during the session, the card reads the remaining move to the close from the live 0DTE quotes instead, and it shrinks through the afternoon as the straddle decays.

  • 2 in 3 and 9 in 10 are the bands two thirds and nine tenths of closes landed inside, in every held-out year since 2019.
  • A horizon marked Earnings includes the report's jump; the others do not.
Size, not direction. The bands are close-to-close; how often a session only touches an edge is measured on the odds card.
The realised move was 1.00–1.05× the forecast at every horizon from 1 to 21 sessions, in all eight held-out years. Measured 2026-09-16 on 3.7M expiry-rows over 3,852 names, one session a week 2016–2026. Walk-forward 2019–2026: total variance interpolated across the expiry ladder in trading sessions, the earnings jump split out, one multiplier per horizon fitted on prior years only
See also: Odds to the close , Implied volatility (IV)
±1.4%
±$0.45 from $31.42 · Oct 30 close
Odds · next session
The 90% edges $30.46–$32.38: 19% touch, 9% close beyond.

For SPY and SPX during the session, odds are the measured frequency with which a strike one sigma out was touched before the close, and the frequency the session closed beyond it, at this hour and distance. Touching happens about twice as often as closing beyond, which is why a target is easier than a finish.

For every other symbol the odds are measured from the previous close's one-session band: across 4.0 million single-name sessions since 2016 the next session touched a 68% edge about 60% of the time and closed beyond it about 30%; at the 90% edge, about 19% and 9%. A session with earnings in it, and a fund, carry more of their move overnight, so they touch less often for the same close, and the card uses their own rows.

Neither figure says which way the stock will go.

A frequency, not a direction: a touch says the priced move arrived, not which way the day ends. Survivor panel. The within-session decay is its own record (touch_decay).
On single names the next session touched a 68% edge 59.5% of the time and closed beyond it 30.5% — 1.95×, and 2.05× at the 90% edge — within 1.86–2.19 in every year 2016–2026, every liquidity and IV tercile and both edges. Measured 2026-11-01 on 4.0M single-name sessions over 4,002 names and 2,675 sessions, 2016–2026; 733k fund sessions. Point-in-time: the chain's band on the entry date against the next session's bars; date-clustered bootstrap on the ratio. Earnings sessions (1.73×) and funds (1.71×) measured as their own rows
See also: Priced to move
60% touch
the 68% edges $30.88 or $31.96; 31% close beyond them
Cost to be in the trade

Cost is what the cheapest-to-trade call and put for the next few sessions charge to get in and out, read as the quoted spread against the mid. Options get no price improvement — nine prints in ten fill at the bid or the ask — so the spread is the cost, and choosing a contract with a tight one removes about a third of it.

  • tradeable is a spread up to 5% of mid, expensive up to 15%, avoid beyond.
  • The contract shown is a long call or put near 0.50 delta inside five sessions; a different horizon is a different pick.

A quote is not a fill, and a cheaper contract is a different position.

A quote, not a fill: the spread can widen before an order arrives, and a cheaper contract is a different position.
91.4% of option prints fill at the bid or the ask with no improvement; the median listed spread is 18.6% of mid, and choosing by spread removes about a third of the cost. Measured 2026-09-13 on 7.65M prints on 48 sessions, October 2025 to September 2026. Effective against quoted spread on sampled sessions of our own tape, priced against the end-of-day chain
See also: Cheapest contract for the exposure
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No liquid, two-sided contract within five sessions.
Event and volatility read
A volatility forecast, not a return. Selling the premium is charged at a median spread and the 2025–26 stretch was the decade's weakest.
The 10-session IV path beat its best stored rule in 8 of 8 walk-forward folds (IC 0.44 against 0.38), and the premium over realised did the same. Measured 2026-09-14 on 1.53M name-sessions over 5,189 names, 2016–2026. Yearly walk-forward folds 2019–2026, rank IC against the realised path
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The model reads are for the current session, which this plan does not open.