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ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc ZTO 20.8 0.03 0.14%

Previous-day view · Fri Nov 6 close. You are previewing the previous trading day. Subscribe to see today live and every other date — Trader is $59/mo. Sign up Sign in

Expected move

November 06, 2026 close · $20.56
Horizon Expected move Typical range 2 in 3 closes 9 in 10 closes
Next session ±1.5% ±$0.31 $20.25 – $20.87 $20.19 – $20.93 $19.89 – $21.23
2 sessions ±2.1% ±$0.43 $20.13 – $20.99 $20.03 – $21.09 $19.62 – $21.50
3 sessions ±2.7% ±$0.55 $20.01 – $21.11 $19.91 – $21.21 $19.40 – $21.72
1 week ±3.4% ±$0.69 $19.87 – $21.25 $19.71 – $21.41 $19.08 – $22.04
2 weeks ±4.7% ±$0.97 $19.59 – $21.53 $19.35 – $21.77 $18.48 – $22.64
3 weeks ±5.9% ±$1.21 $19.35 – $21.77 $19.06 – $22.06 $18.01 – $23.11
1 month ±7.0% ±$1.44 $19.12 – $22.00 $18.77 – $22.35 $17.51 – $23.61
Size, not direction. The 68% and 90% bands held 66–68% and 89–90% of closes in held-out years 2019–2026. ZTO reports in 8 sessions; only the horizons marked Earnings include its jump. Draw the cone on the chart →

Volatility premium

Beta
The forecast is for the current session, which this plan does not open.

Earnings: priced against what happened

Average implied move
±5.97%
Average actual move
5.55%
Beyond the implied move
2 / 3
Median IV change
-15.61%
Reaction session Implied Actual Used ATM IV before → after
August 19, 2026 ±5.08% -7.00% 1.38× —
March 18, 2026 ±5.90% +7.50% 1.27× —
March 19, 2025 ±6.92% +2.16% 0.31× 47.7% → 39.2%
Reconstructed from archived mid quotes; the straddle covers its expiration, not only the reaction session. These are not option returns. Method and missing reports →