USB Moves

U USB 59.75 -1.28 -2.1%

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Expected move

November 05, 2026 close · $60.09

Horizon	Expected move	Typical range	2 in 3 closes	9 in 10 closes
Next session	±1.3% ±$0.76	$59.34 – $60.85	$59.19 – $61.00	$58.47 – $61.72
2 sessions	±1.8% ±$1.05	$59.04 – $61.15	$58.82 – $61.37	$57.83 – $62.36
3 sessions	±2.2% ±$1.33	$58.77 – $61.42	$58.51 – $61.68	$57.28 – $62.91
1 week	±2.8% ±$1.69	$58.41 – $61.78	$58.04 – $62.15	$56.51 – $63.68
2 weeks	±3.9% ±$2.37	$57.73 – $62.46	$57.17 – $63.02	$55.06 – $65.13
3 weeks	±4.8% ±$2.90	$57.20 – $62.99	$56.50 – $63.69	$53.99 – $66.20
1 month	±5.8% ±$3.50	$56.60 – $63.59	$55.73 – $64.46	$52.68 – $67.51

Size, not direction. The 68% and 90% bands held 66–68% and 89–90% of closes in held-out years 2019–2026. Draw the cone on the chart →

Volatility premium

Beta

The forecast is for the current session, which this plan does not open.

Earnings: priced against what happened

Average implied move

±3.52%

Average actual move

2.32%

Beyond the implied move

1 / 6

Median IV change

-15.15%

Reaction session	Implied	Actual	Used	ATM IV before → after
October 15, 2026	±3.29%	+2.01%	0.61×	30.5% → 25.9%
July 16, 2026	±3.10%	+1.59%	0.51×	29.5% → 25.1%
April 16, 2026	±3.48%	-1.58%	0.45×	—
July 17, 2025	±3.33%	-1.03%	0.31×	29.3% → 21.8%
April 16, 2025	±4.01%	-2.10%	0.52×	38.9% → 35.7%
January 16, 2025	±3.89%	-5.64%	1.45×	30.6% → 23.7%

Reconstructed from archived mid quotes; the straddle covers its expiration, not only the reaction session. These are not option returns. Method and missing reports →