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USA Rare Earth USAR 8.22 0.81 10.85%

Previous-day view · Fri Nov 6 close. You are previewing the previous trading day. Subscribe to see today live and every other date — Trader is $59/mo. Sign up Sign in

Expected move

November 06, 2026 close · $8.25
Horizon Expected move Typical range 2 in 3 closes 9 in 10 closes
Next session ±4.3% ±$0.36 $7.89 – $8.61 $7.82 – $8.68 $7.48 – $9.02
2 sessions Earnings ±10.8% ±$0.89 $7.36 – $9.14 $7.14 – $9.36 $6.31 – $10.19
3 sessions Earnings ±12.2% ±$1.00 $7.25 – $9.25 $7.02 – $9.48 $6.10 – $10.40
1 week Earnings ±14.0% ±$1.15 $7.10 – $9.40 $6.82 – $9.68 $5.83 – $10.67
2 weeks Earnings ±17.4% ±$1.44 $6.81 – $9.69 $6.48 – $10.02 $5.22 – $11.28
3 weeks Earnings ±20.2% ±$1.66 $6.59 – $9.91 $6.19 – $10.31 $4.75 – $11.75
1 month Earnings ±23.0% ±$1.89 $6.36 – $10.14 $5.90 – $10.60 $4.27 – $12.23
Size, not direction. The 68% and 90% bands held 66–68% and 89–90% of closes in held-out years 2019–2026. USAR reports in 2 sessions; only the horizons marked Earnings include its jump. Draw the cone on the chart →

Volatility premium

Beta
The forecast is for the current session, which this plan does not open.

Earnings: priced against what happened

Average implied move
±12.14%
Average actual move
8.77%
Beyond the implied move
1 / 3
Median IV change
-19.99%
Reaction session Implied Actual Used ATM IV before → after
August 11, 2026 ±10.82% -0.68% 0.06× 109.9% → 87.9%
May 14, 2026 ±10.23% -2.32% 0.23× —
August 12, 2025 ±15.38% +23.32% 1.52× —
Reconstructed from archived mid quotes; the straddle covers its expiration, not only the reaction session. These are not option returns. Method and missing reports →