TS Moves

Tenaris S TS 58.85 2.32 4.1%

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Expected move

November 06, 2026 close · $58.85

Horizon	Expected move	Typical range	2 in 3 closes	9 in 10 closes
Next session	±1.5% ±$0.89	$57.96 – $59.74	$57.78 – $59.92	$56.95 – $60.75
2 sessions	±2.1% ±$1.24	$57.61 – $60.09	$57.36 – $60.34	$56.19 – $61.51
3 sessions	±2.6% ±$1.55	$57.30 – $60.40	$57.00 – $60.70	$55.54 – $62.16
1 week	±3.4% ±$1.97	$56.88 – $60.82	$56.44 – $61.26	$54.64 – $63.06
2 weeks	±4.7% ±$2.77	$56.08 – $61.62	$55.42 – $62.28	$52.94 – $64.76
3 weeks	±5.8% ±$3.43	$55.42 – $62.28	$54.58 – $63.12	$51.60 – $66.10
1 month	±6.9% ±$4.08	$54.77 – $62.93	$53.75 – $63.95	$50.19 – $67.51

Size, not direction. The 68% and 90% bands held 66–68% and 89–90% of closes in held-out years 2019–2026. Draw the cone on the chart →

Volatility premium

Beta

The forecast is for the current session, which this plan does not open.

Earnings: priced against what happened

Average implied move

±5.65%

Average actual move

3.13%

Beyond the implied move

0 / 2

Median IV change

-18.97%

Reaction session	Implied	Actual	Used	ATM IV before → after
May 07, 2026	±5.65%	-5.56%	0.98×	—
February 20, 2025	±5.66%	-0.69%	0.12×	30.7% → 23.4%

Reconstructed from archived mid quotes; the straddle covers its expiration, not only the reaction session. These are not option returns. Method and missing reports →