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Trip TCOM 44.37 0.56 1.28%

Previous-day view · Fri Nov 6 close. You are previewing the previous trading day. Subscribe to see today live and every other date — Trader is $59/mo. Sign up Sign in

Expected move

November 06, 2026 close · $44.41
Horizon Expected move Typical range 2 in 3 closes 9 in 10 closes
Next session ±1.8% ±$0.77 $43.63 – $45.18 $43.47 – $45.34 $42.74 – $46.07
2 sessions ±2.4% ±$1.09 $43.32 – $45.49 $43.09 – $45.72 $42.07 – $46.74
3 sessions ±3.1% ±$1.37 $43.04 – $45.77 $42.78 – $46.03 $41.50 – $47.31
1 week ±3.9% ±$1.73 $42.67 – $46.14 $42.29 – $46.52 $40.71 – $48.10
2 weeks ±5.5% ±$2.44 $41.97 – $46.84 $41.39 – $47.42 $39.21 – $49.60
3 weeks ±6.8% ±$3.02 $41.39 – $47.42 $40.66 – $48.15 $38.04 – $50.77
1 month ±8.1% ±$3.59 $40.82 – $47.99 $39.92 – $48.89 $36.80 – $52.01
Size, not direction. The 68% and 90% bands held 66–68% and 89–90% of closes in held-out years 2019–2026. TCOM reports in 11 sessions; only the horizons marked Earnings include its jump. Draw the cone on the chart →

Volatility premium

Beta
The forecast is for the current session, which this plan does not open.

Earnings: priced against what happened

Average implied move
±7.20%
Average actual move
3.01%
Beyond the implied move
0 / 1
Median IV change
-13.57%
Reaction session Implied Actual Used ATM IV before → after
September 16, 2026 ±7.20% +3.01% 0.42× 39.0% → 27.7%
Reconstructed from archived mid quotes; the straddle covers its expiration, not only the reaction session. These are not option returns. Method and missing reports →