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SM Energy Company SM 29.63 -1.43 -4.6%

Previous-day view · Thu Nov 5 close. You are previewing the previous trading day. Subscribe to see today live and every other date — Trader is $59/mo. Sign up Sign in

Expected move

November 05, 2026 close · $29.68
Horizon Expected move Typical range 2 in 3 closes 9 in 10 closes
Next session ±2.6% ±$0.76 $28.92 – $30.44 $28.77 – $30.59 $28.05 – $31.31
2 sessions ±3.6% ±$1.06 $28.62 – $30.74 $28.40 – $30.96 $27.40 – $31.96
3 sessions ±4.5% ±$1.33 $28.35 – $31.01 $28.09 – $31.27 $26.84 – $32.52
1 week ±5.7% ±$1.69 $27.99 – $31.37 $27.61 – $31.75 $26.07 – $33.29
2 weeks ±8.0% ±$2.38 $27.30 – $32.06 $26.74 – $32.62 $24.61 – $34.75
3 weeks ±9.4% ±$2.79 $26.89 – $32.47 $26.21 – $33.15 $23.79 – $35.57
1 month ±10.7% ±$3.17 $26.51 – $32.85 $25.72 – $33.64 $22.96 – $36.40
Size, not direction. The 68% and 90% bands held 66–68% and 89–90% of closes in held-out years 2019–2026. Draw the cone on the chart →

Volatility premium

Beta
The forecast is for the current session, which this plan does not open.

Earnings: priced against what happened

Average implied move
±8.04%
Average actual move
3.18%
Beyond the implied move
0 / 2
Median IV change
-11.54%
Reaction session Implied Actual Used ATM IV before → after
May 07, 2026 ±8.93% +1.93% 0.22× —
February 20, 2025 ±7.15% -4.43% 0.62× 44.3% → 36.2%
Reconstructed from archived mid quotes; the straddle covers its expiration, not only the reaction session. These are not option returns. Method and missing reports →