RXRX Moves

Recursion Pharmaceuticals RXRX 3.5 -0.38 -9.79%

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Expected move

November 05, 2026 close · $3.46

Horizon	Expected move	Typical range	2 in 3 closes	9 in 10 closes
Next session	±4.2% ±$0.14	$3.32 – $3.60	$3.29 – $3.63	$3.15 – $3.77
2 sessions	±5.8% ±$0.20	$3.26 – $3.66	$3.22 – $3.70	$3.03 – $3.89
3 sessions	±7.3% ±$0.25	$3.21 – $3.71	$3.16 – $3.76	$2.92 – $4.00
1 week	±9.3% ±$0.32	$3.14 – $3.78	$3.07 – $3.85	$2.77 – $4.15
2 weeks	±13.1% ±$0.45	$3.01 – $3.91	$2.90 – $4.02	$2.50 – $4.42
3 weeks	±16.2% ±$0.56	$2.90 – $4.02	$2.76 – $4.16	$2.28 – $4.64
1 month	±19.3% ±$0.67	$2.79 – $4.13	$2.63 – $4.29	$2.05 – $4.87

Size, not direction. The 68% and 90% bands held 66–68% and 89–90% of closes in held-out years 2019–2026. Draw the cone on the chart →

Volatility premium

Beta

The forecast is for the current session, which this plan does not open.

Earnings: priced against what happened

Average implied move

±12.36%

Average actual move

5.80%

Beyond the implied move

1 / 5

Median IV change

-16.85%

Reaction session	Implied	Actual	Used	ATM IV before → after
November 03, 2026	±13.58%	-3.92%	0.29×	—
May 06, 2026	±10.53%	+1.78%	0.17×	—
August 05, 2025	±13.79%	-4.66%	0.34×	133.5% → 111.0%
May 05, 2025	±13.16%	-16.58%	1.26×	—
February 28, 2025	±10.76%	-2.09%	0.19×	—

Reconstructed from archived mid quotes; the straddle covers its expiration, not only the reaction session. These are not option returns. Method and missing reports →