RGTI Moves

Rigetti Computing RGTI 9.85 -1.36 -12.13%

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Expected move

November 05, 2026 close · $9.89

Horizon	Expected move	Typical range	2 in 3 closes	9 in 10 closes
Next session	±3.5% ±$0.35	$9.55 – $10.24	$9.48 – $10.31	$9.16 – $10.63
2 sessions	±4.8% ±$0.47	$9.42 – $10.37	$9.32 – $10.47	$8.87 – $10.92
3 sessions	±6.1% ±$0.60	$9.30 – $10.49	$9.18 – $10.61	$8.62 – $11.17
1 week Earnings	±14.7% ±$1.46	$8.44 – $11.35	$8.09 – $11.70	$6.85 – $12.94
2 weeks Earnings	±16.8% ±$1.67	$8.23 – $11.56	$7.84 – $11.95	$6.39 – $13.40
3 weeks Earnings	±18.6% ±$1.85	$8.05 – $11.74	$7.61 – $12.18	$6.02 – $13.77
1 month Earnings	±20.5% ±$2.04	$7.86 – $11.93	$7.37 – $12.42	$5.62 – $14.17

Size, not direction. The 68% and 90% bands held 66–68% and 89–90% of closes in held-out years 2019–2026. RGTI reports in 4 sessions; only the horizons marked Earnings include its jump. Draw the cone on the chart →

Volatility premium

Beta

The forecast is for the current session, which this plan does not open.

Earnings: priced against what happened

Average implied move

±15.30%

Average actual move

7.09%

Beyond the implied move

1 / 6

Median IV change

-19.55%

Reaction session	Implied	Actual	Used	ATM IV before → after
August 07, 2026	±8.38%	+8.53%	1.02×	100.8% → 83.2%
May 12, 2026	±14.24%	-7.02%	0.49×	132.7% → 105.7%
August 13, 2025	±13.15%	+6.42%	0.49×	105.9% → 85.2%
May 13, 2025	±15.84%	-14.59%	0.92×	143.9% → 109.7%
March 06, 2025	±17.18%	+4.03%	0.23×	182.2% → 169.4%
November 12, 2024	±23.03%	-1.97%	0.09×	—

Reconstructed from archived mid quotes; the straddle covers its expiration, not only the reaction session. These are not option returns. Method and missing reports →