PSX Moves

PHILLIPS 66 PSX 245.72 -1.32 -0.53%

Previous-day view · Fri Nov 6 close. You are previewing the previous trading day. Subscribe to see today live and every other date — Trader is $59/mo. Sign up Sign in

Expected move

November 06, 2026 close · $245.72

Horizon	Expected move	Typical range	2 in 3 closes	9 in 10 closes
Next session	±2.4% ±$5.82	$239.90 – $251.54	$238.72 – $252.72	$233.24 – $258.20
2 sessions	±3.3% ±$8.11	$237.61 – $253.83	$235.92 – $255.52	$228.25 – $263.19
3 sessions	±4.2% ±$10.20	$235.52 – $255.92	$233.56 – $257.88	$224.00 – $267.44
1 week	±5.3% ±$12.95	$232.77 – $258.67	$229.87 – $261.57	$218.10 – $273.34
2 weeks	±6.7% ±$16.51	$229.21 – $262.23	$225.30 – $266.14	$210.48 – $280.96
3 weeks	±8.3% ±$20.27	$225.45 – $265.99	$220.51 – $270.93	$202.87 – $288.57
1 month	±9.5% ±$23.27	$222.45 – $268.99	$216.68 – $274.76	$196.38 – $295.06

Size, not direction. The 68% and 90% bands held 66–68% and 89–90% of closes in held-out years 2019–2026. Draw the cone on the chart →

Volatility premium

Beta

The forecast is for the current session, which this plan does not open.

Earnings: priced against what happened

Average implied move

±3.37%

Average actual move

1.40%

Beyond the implied move

0 / 4

Median IV change

-13.45%

Reaction session	Implied	Actual	Used	ATM IV before → after
October 28, 2026	±4.52%	+1.95%	0.43×	47.0% → 45.2%
July 25, 2025	±2.94%	+0.52%	0.18×	34.1% → 26.5%
April 25, 2025	±3.10%	-0.69%	0.22×	42.4% → 37.1%
January 31, 2025	±2.90%	-2.46%	0.85×	32.6% → 27.9%

Reconstructed from archived mid quotes; the straddle covers its expiration, not only the reaction session. These are not option returns. Method and missing reports →