PBR Moves

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PETROLEO BRASILEIRO S PBR 18.28 -0.07 -0.38%

Previous-day view · Tue Nov 10 close. You are previewing the previous trading day. Subscribe to see today live and every other date — Trader is $59/mo. Sign up Sign in

Expected move

November 10, 2026 close · $18.28

Horizon	Expected move	Typical range	2 in 3 closes	9 in 10 closes
Next session Earnings	±3.4% ±$0.62	$17.66 – $18.90	$17.50 – $19.06	$16.92 – $19.64
2 sessions Earnings	±4.0% ±$0.73	$17.55 – $19.01	$17.37 – $19.19	$16.70 – $19.86
3 sessions Earnings	±4.5% ±$0.83	$17.45 – $19.11	$17.26 – $19.30	$16.49 – $20.07
1 week Earnings	±5.3% ±$0.97	$17.31 – $19.25	$17.07 – $19.49	$16.24 – $20.32
2 weeks Earnings	±6.8% ±$1.24	$17.04 – $19.52	$16.75 – $19.81	$15.67 – $20.89
3 weeks Earnings	±7.9% ±$1.45	$16.83 – $19.73	$16.49 – $20.07	$15.24 – $21.32
1 month Earnings	±9.1% ±$1.66	$16.62 – $19.94	$16.23 – $20.33	$14.80 – $21.76

Size, not direction. The 68% and 90% bands held 66–68% and 89–90% of closes in held-out years 2019–2026. PBR reports in 1 session; only the horizons marked Earnings include its jump. Draw the cone on the chart →

Volatility premium

Beta

The forecast is for the current session, which this plan does not open.

Earnings: priced against what happened

Average implied move

±4.39%

Average actual move

0.99%

Beyond the implied move

0 / 1

Median IV change

-20.50%

Reaction session	Implied	Actual	Used	ATM IV before → after
May 13, 2025	±4.39%	+0.99%	0.23×	35.8% → 28.5%

Reconstructed from archived mid quotes; the straddle covers its expiration, not only the reaction session. These are not option returns. Method and missing reports →