ONON Moves

On Holding AG ONON 37.54 -1.08 -2.8%

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Expected move

November 05, 2026 close · $37.49

Horizon	Expected move	Typical range	2 in 3 closes	9 in 10 closes
Next session	±2.1% ±$0.78	$36.71 – $38.27	$36.55 – $38.43	$35.81 – $39.17
2 sessions	±2.9% ±$1.09	$36.40 – $38.58	$36.17 – $38.81	$35.14 – $39.84
3 sessions Earnings	±10.1% ±$3.79	$33.70 – $41.28	$32.82 – $42.16	$29.35 – $45.63
1 week Earnings	±10.7% ±$4.02	$33.47 – $41.51	$32.51 – $42.47	$29.05 – $45.93
2 weeks Earnings	±11.8% ±$4.42	$33.07 – $41.91	$32.02 – $42.96	$28.16 – $46.82
3 weeks Earnings	±12.7% ±$4.78	$32.71 – $42.27	$31.58 – $43.40	$27.45 – $47.53
1 month Earnings	±13.8% ±$5.15	$32.34 – $42.64	$31.09 – $43.89	$26.65 – $48.33

Size, not direction. The 68% and 90% bands held 66–68% and 89–90% of closes in held-out years 2019–2026. ONON reports in 3 sessions; only the horizons marked Earnings include its jump. Draw the cone on the chart →

Volatility premium

Beta

The forecast is for the current session, which this plan does not open.

Earnings: priced against what happened

Average implied move

±10.83%

Average actual move

7.68%

Beyond the implied move

2 / 7

Median IV change

-36.83%

Reaction session	Implied	Actual	Used	ATM IV before → after
August 11, 2026	±9.94%	-20.29%	2.04×	—
May 12, 2026	±11.90%	-0.62%	0.05×	—
March 03, 2026	±11.82%	-6.09%	0.52×	—
August 12, 2025	±11.60%	+8.95%	0.77×	—
May 13, 2025	±8.86%	+11.83%	1.34×	71.0% → 54.7%
March 04, 2025	±11.04%	+5.81%	0.53×	89.7% → 56.6%
November 12, 2024	±10.68%	-0.17%	0.02×	84.5% → 45.4%

Reconstructed from archived mid quotes; the straddle covers its expiration, not only the reaction session. These are not option returns. Method and missing reports →