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Novavax Inc NVAX 9.78 -0.87 -8.17%

Previous-day view · Thu Nov 5 close. You are previewing the previous trading day. Subscribe to see today live and every other date — Trader is $59/mo. Sign up Sign in

Expected move

November 05, 2026 close · $9.71
Horizon Expected move Typical range 2 in 3 closes 9 in 10 closes
Next session ±3.9% ±$0.38 $9.33 – $10.08 $9.25 – $10.16 $8.89 – $10.52
2 sessions ±5.4% ±$0.53 $9.18 – $10.23 $9.07 – $10.34 $8.57 – $10.84
3 sessions ±6.8% ±$0.66 $9.04 – $10.37 $8.91 – $10.50 $8.29 – $11.12
1 week ±8.7% ±$0.85 $8.86 – $10.55 $8.68 – $10.73 $7.91 – $11.50
2 weeks ±12.2% ±$1.19 $8.52 – $10.89 $8.24 – $11.17 $7.18 – $12.23
3 weeks ±15.1% ±$1.46 $8.24 – $11.17 $7.89 – $11.52 $6.61 – $12.80
1 month ±18.0% ±$1.74 $7.96 – $11.45 $7.53 – $11.88 $6.01 – $13.40
Size, not direction. The 68% and 90% bands held 66–68% and 89–90% of closes in held-out years 2019–2026. Draw the cone on the chart →

Volatility premium

Beta
The forecast is for the current session, which this plan does not open.

Earnings: priced against what happened

Average implied move
±15.11%
Average actual move
10.35%
Beyond the implied move
1 / 3
Median IV change
-31.78%
Reaction session Implied Actual Used ATM IV before → after
May 06, 2026 ±10.86% +15.56% 1.43× —
May 08, 2025 ±15.46% +11.93% 0.77× 119.9% → 89.4%
February 27, 2025 ±18.99% -3.55% 0.19× 134.8% → 83.4%
Reconstructed from archived mid quotes; the straddle covers its expiration, not only the reaction session. These are not option returns. Method and missing reports →